AB&E Commentaries
Always Beneficial & Enlightening

Written by us and relevant to you, it’s our vehicle for sharing financial insight into current topics about the markets, the economy and the investment world. Please contact us if you would like to be notified of commentary updates, have questions, comments or would like to learn more about the information posted here.

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Paul's Financial Journal
April 2025
Stock prices often shift for complex reasons, and while we create stories to explain these changes, recent events remind us how unpredictable markets can be. Political developments and economic fears have reshaped investor sentiment, challenging traditional narratives.
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Paul's Financial Journal
January 2025
2024 was another strong year for asset returns, as economic growth outpaced expectations and the Fed initiated rate cuts. The S&P 500 achieved a total return of +25%, marking the first back-to-back annual returns above 20% since the late-1990s, powered by a +67% gain in the Magnificent 7 stocks. The theme of US Exceptionalism took hold as markets priced in the potential impacts of Trump 2.0.
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Paul's Financial Journal
October 2024
Markets performed strongly over the third quarter, with global equities and bonds advancing. Despite some volatility during the summer due to recession fears, the unwind of the Yen carry trade, and tech valuation concerns, markets recovered thanks to central banks’ dovish pivot, strong US economic data, and China’s stimulus announcement.
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Paul's Financial Journal
June 2024
May saw markets rebound after a lackluster April. Positive corporate earnings and increased participation from sectors other than technology drove the recovery. Across the board we saw benchmark indexes reverse the prior month's losses with notable gains in May. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the way, followed by the small-cap Russell 2000, benefiting from a decline in interest rates.
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Paul's Financial Journal
May 2024
The month of April saw the S&P 500 index encounter its first pullback since October 2023. This correction wasn’t entirely unexpected, given the market’s robust 25% advance since then. Investor optimism had been riding high, but now attention is shifting to corporate earnings results as a potential driver for the market’s next move. The negative catalyst has been “sticky” inflation, resulting in a reset of Fed expectations.
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Paul's Financial Journal
April 2024
March saw a month of new records, with all three major indices – the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq – reaching all-time highs. This bullish trend persisted for the fifth consecutive month. Despite concerns about interest rates remaining elevated, the stock market demonstrated solid resilience.
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Paul's Financial Journal
March 2024
In February, the stock market demonstrated remarkable resilience. Domestic equity benchmarks closed the month on a strong note, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 achieving all-time highs. Notably, inflation data aligned with expectations, providing further support for stock prices.
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Paul's Financial Journal
February 2024
The narrative of late last year continues with economic resilience, moderating inflation, equity markets continue to be led by the megacap Tech names. Small caps have been lagging, perhaps as a result of the Fed rate cut uncertainty – predicting interest rates is a fool’serrand, see Chart of the Month. With the S&P 500 rallying about 20% since the late-October lows, a period of consolidation and volatility is likely as much of the good news has already been priced in.
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Paul's Financial Journal
January 2024
The year 2023 was dominated by inflation and the Federal Reserve's restrictive policy in response to it. The year began with inflation at about 6.5%, with the Fed raising interest rates despite fears of rising unemployment and an economic recession. The fourth quarter benefitted from a reversal in investor sentiment to close out 2023 on a high note. The impetus behind the change was largely driven by an expectation that the Federal Reserve had concluded their interest rate hikes and an anticipation of interest rate cuts in 2024.
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Paul's Financial Journal
December 2023
After a dismal three month slide in the markets, November saw financial markets rebound. The November rally sent major market indices to near or beyond the year-to-date peaks reached at the end of the second quarter.
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Paul's Financial Journal
October 2023
The fourth quarter begins with a continued air of uncertainty for investors. While the markets dodged a big bullet in avoiding a government shutdown, other concerns and questions remain.
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Paul's Financial Journal
September 2023
Stock markets have been on a charge in 2023 but August proved to be a tough month, snapping a five-month growth streak. Equity benchmark indexes ended the month lower.
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Paul's Financial Journal
August 2023
The bear market of 2022 was driven by investors anticipating a recession this year. Of course, there will eventually be another recession, but so far, the global economy continues to defy the gravity of higher interest rates.
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Paul's Financial Journal
June 2023
Markets continue their strong start to the year as economic data remains resilient. The stronger economic data and sticky inflation has raised concerns that rates will likely remain higher for longer and the market doesn’t seem too concerned…for now. Many market observers have touted the idea that the Fed is likely to achieve a ‘soft landing’.
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Paul's Financial Journal
May 2023
Markets are off to a strong start to the year with the rally driven by a variety of factors. Most notably we’ve seen the labor market remain resilient adding roughly 1 million new jobs since the start of the year thanks largely to an improved labor participation data. Inflation remains high, CPI inflation stands at 5%, down from its high of 9% in June 2022 and does appear to be trending lower.
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Paul's Financial Journal
April 2023
March provided a rather interesting month for Investors amid the news flow. Stocks and bonds continue to have a good start to the year, several of 2022’s underperforming sectors have experienced a notable turnaround, highlighting investors’ willingness to look beyond near-term challenges in an attempt to front run a potentially more dovish Federal Reserve.
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Paul's Financial Journal
March 2023
It appears that the rally in equities to start the year got a little ahead of itself. With the economic outlook still highly uncertain, one should expect higher volatility to remain.
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Paul's Financial Journal
February 2023
The market started hot this year, then suddenly cooled. The Fed is watching closely. What’s a long-term investor to do? Maybe bad news isn’t good news anymore.
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Paul's Financial Journal
January 2023
2022 will go down in history as an arduous year for investors. Over the last month my inbox has been filling up with year ahead outlooks. All of the outlooks have compelling narratives and justifications for their projections.
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Paul's Financial Journal
November 2022
After a torrid September, October saw markets rally as we close in on the final stretch of the year. This last week, the market was looking for a definitive signal from the Fed that they might be near the end of their tightening cycle.
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Paul's Financial Journal
September 2022
The Federal Reserve's resolve, the end of a rally, trouble overseas and a strong jobs growth report were some of the ingredients of August's strange brew of market news and events.
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Paul's Financial Journal
June 2022
It’s only natural that when there’s volatility in the markets that we may feel a sense of anxiety in relation to our investments. Even the most diligent of savers and planners are not immune to panic.
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Paul's Financial Journal
May 2022
One of the great disconnects when it comes to investing is that, while we all know results are optimized when you adopt a patient long-term approach, we are constantly nudged to make short-term decisions by the way the industry is organized.
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Paul's Financial Journal
April 2022
The first quarter of 2022 proved to be a challenging one for capital markets. Stock and bond markets both priced down relatively sharply amidst a backdrop of rapidly increasing interest rates, further inflationary pressures, declining consumer sentiment, and the sad conflict in Eastern Europe.
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Paul's Financial Journal
March 2022
Market volatility is back in 2022. Trying to manage your investments in a crisis, with extreme market volatility, can be mind- boggling. It’s about as difficult as keeping up with the news flow which we’re all inundated with.
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Paul's Financial Journal
February 2022
What a difference a few weeks can make in the equity market. The sharp, swift sell-off through the first month of 2022 is raising some difficult questions for investors, primarily: Are we just witnessing a long-overdue short-term correction in the more speculative areas of the market, or perhaps something more fundamental (and enduring) that could foreshadow a broader bear market is stocks?
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