“Live within your income and save so that you can invest. Learn what you need to learn.” ~ Charlie Munger
Prologue
After a dismal three month slide in the markets, November saw financial markets rebound. The November rally sent major market indices to near or beyond the year-to-date peaks reached at the end of the second quarter.
What was behind the recovery? There are a variety of reasons as to why the market turned; There was the right mix of economic data, good and bad
The good: Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation came in low, 3.2%, well off the high of 9% in June 2022 The bad: Softer economic data, a tick up in the unemployment rate and a slowing in manufacturing suggests that the Fed may be done raising interest rates
Seasonality – some argue that institutional funds have until October 31st to complete their tax-loss selling for the year. This can have a big impact on markets considering US mutual funds manage more than $20 trillion in assets across stocks and bonds
Perhaps it’s a combination of factors as the equity gains were felt broadly – not just among the rarefied club of large technology companies with lines of business in AI — as small-cap and international equities posted strong returns for the month. Market leadership remains historically narrow; see Chart of the Month below.
Bonds also rallied in the month of November, the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index erasing year-to-date losses and sidestepping, at least temporarily, three consecutive years of negative performance. The yield on the 10-year Treasury settled around the 4.29% mark after briefly touching 5% in late October.
While November’s gains were a welcome sight after three months of steady declines, rising stocks and falling bond yields contribute to the inflationary heat the Fed has worked to cool. This means that while the Fed seemingly called off a final interest rate hike for the year, one could expect a response if inflation turns around. As long as that threat looms, the markets will likely remain volatile.
Wishing you and your family all the very best over the festive season!
Please reach out with questions.
-Paul
Noteworthy links:
- RBA: Magnificence beyond the Magnificent 7
- Capital Group: Economic outlook: A mixed picture for global growth in 2024
- RJ: IRS suspends missed RMD penalty for certain inherited IRAs
Chart of the Month
The striking outperformance of the Magnificent 7
Article of the Month
Only As Old As You Choose: Making 50 The New 30
By Julien Fortuit, published in Forbes November 3rd, 2023.
First, some good news: Despite wars, economic upheaval and climate change, global life expectancy has increased markedly over the past 70 years, from 45.7 years in 1950 to 72.6 years in 2019; even with the drop caused by COVID-19, we are still outliving our parents and grandparents by a significant margin. Today, living into the 90s or even the 100s is more likely than ever before, particularly with a commitment to making healthy life choices, to say nothing of large-scale improvements in healthcare, sustainability and infrastructure that also increase longevity at the societal level.
So, what are we doing with these added years?
The fact is, all this added longevity necessitates a review of our career habits. Back in the day, people worked for 25-35 years, usually until they were in their late 50s. The average age of retirement in the United States was 59 in 1991; you would then expect maybe 10 more good years, 15 if you were lucky. By 2022, that average age had gone up to 66—and now, people are living 20 to 30 years longer than that. It’s time for a change.
Revisiting Retirement
I ask my clients, “What are your plans for retirement? To hang out with your grandchildren all day? Play golf? Watch soap operas?” Many of us fantasize about having more leisure time, and we should certainly make sure we have some time to simply enjoy life. But I’ve found that, practically, a retirement plan that involves doing a lot of nothing for decades on end is really not sufficient for most entrepreneurially minded people.
All of this necessitates a shift in how we view and perform our jobs in our 50s—which, back in the day, were the sunset years of our careers. Professional advancement, learning new skills and challenging ourselves with engaging projects all seemed far less important when the goal was to coast for a few more years until punch-out time.
Now, many of us extend our careers into our 60s or even 70s. We may do this out of a need for extra income in our later years, to evade boredom or because we simply enjoy the work too much to leave. Personally, I enjoy the chance to continuously learn and contribute within my field. And given this added career length, coasting is, for many people, no longer feasible or desirable.
People who are satisfied with their careers long-term find ways to make the work engaging and fresh, becoming involved in projects or learning opportunities that feel dynamic, exciting and rewarding (financially or otherwise). They don’t see being in their 50s or 60s as any obstacle to pursuing enticing professional opportunities.
Rising Above The Age Gap
One thing that sometimes cows even seasoned, talented executives is the sense of working alongside people who are much younger than they are—in some cases, closer in age to their own children. How is it possible to stay relevant and valued as a 50- something in a workplace dominated by young, energetic, digitally-savvy 20-something peers?
When clients come to me and express anxiety about these age gaps, I work to help them reframe their thinking. Rather than feeling intimidated by the youth or vitality or meme-fluency of their millennial and Generation Z colleagues, I remind them to look at the experience, longevity, perspicacity and industry-insider status they themselves bring to the table. I tell them, “You’re not 50; you’re 30, with 20 years of experience.” It’s a quippy line, but not without truth: However savvy and energetic younger employees may be, more senior employees with long-standing institutional knowledge and years of skill in their industry space will always be valuable. (This is a point I especially emphasize to women coming back to the traditional workforce after taking time to raise children; their skills, knowledge and determination have not lost value due to a hiatus.)
For HR in big corporations, it’s important to think about age gaps in a strategic way. If a company is hiring 20-somethings purely to save a buck on salaries, they’ve effectively chosen to participate in a race to the bottom. These departments need to look, instead, at hiring the right candidate, taking into account values, attitude and—perhaps most important—experience. A superficial perception of “fit with company culture” that is actually hidden ageism is not only unethical but will result in companies losing a significant competitive advantage.
As for my clients, I remind them that this is a time to be courageous. They’re alive, they’re healthy and they’re not actually leaving the workforce anytime soon—so, what do they truly want to do? Particularly for seasoned entrepreneurs who have gained some financial stability, these later years may offer an opportunity to create that startup, that dream business they always imagined back when they were a cog in someone else’s machine. Or they could take on a role that perhaps seemed too dicey earlier in their career. Now is the time to experiment—to go out on a limb, take a risk and pursue a dream.
A Personal Note
As I write this article, I’m actually approaching a birthday. This one isn’t a particularly “big” birthday, but last year was—I entered a new decade. But rather than getting all mopey and depressed about getting old, I chose instead to follow the advice I give to my own clients: to view it not as youth lost, but as experience gained. I’m taking the opportunity to evaluate what I’m doing, what I want to do now and in the next few years and how I can make these goals come to fruition.
There’s a famous quote by author Richard Bach: “Argue for your limitations, and they’re yours.” You’re only as old as you decide to be. Reaching a big age milestone can seem limiting, but in fact, it presents a host of new opportunities and open doors for people optimistic and ambitious enough to seek them and go through.
Here is a link to the full article: Only As Old As You Choose: Making 50 The New 30
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