Back from the Road
I just got back from the summer trip with the family. This year we decided to hit the North East, and go up to Maine and try and eat as much Lobster as possible.
We did it in a big RV, Wife, 4 kids and 2 dogs in a 38-foot Class A Motorhome, which I bought earlier in the year…… “I’ll make the kids spend time with me if it kills me” was the thought at the time. 13 states in as many days with pit stops in DC, New York and Boston on the way to Maine…. Happy to report we all made it back in one piece, and there were no injuries, well major ones anyway.
Since we were on the road a lot I was able to listen to a lot of Satellite radio, CNBC in the morning then news for the rest of the drive, with the odd earnings call in the middle. The market chugged higher and we hit several new highs for both the Dow and S&P 500 during that time. Earnings calls I listened to have generally been positive, but nothing that has made me feel like we should continue to see the returns for the rest of the year, we have seen for the first half. Based on our analysis, we still see 2150 on the S&P at a fair value for stocks and as I write today we are at 2186. We are still within our ranges (see graph below), albeit in the higher side of it.
Trouble is, in this market, there is nothing happening economically that is looking like allowing rates to rise, which I continue to argue will ultimately be good for the markets. Last week’s productivity number was disappointing, which has a longer term effect on both future job growth and wage growth. While we have these historically low rates, then equities that provide yield will be underpinning the equity markets. Last summer showed how quick these assets can get affected, so we will continue to be underweight these and instead focus on companies that are growing dividends rather than those that are currently paying high dividends.
I’ve attached a few photos below…
As always should you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to give us a call
Regards
"Any opinions are those of Mick Graham and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow”, is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that any statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company’s board of directors."
