Second Half of 2019
I wanted to wait to write Ken’s Korner until after the Raymond James Summer Development Conference in mid-July as I expected many interesting subjects to share from the theme “Innovation”. I was not disappointed. I attended breakout sessions on long term innovation investment themes, MIT Lab (longevity planning), demographic trends, estate planning and long term care strategies to name a few. I look forward to sharing these experiences with you at future meetings.
An interesting connection I made throughout many of the meetings is how so many of the “new technologies” of the past decade that millennials (and others) use often such as Uber, GrubHub, Google, Amazon and Facebook are also the same things that seniors use for social interactions, convenience or out of necessity. The future and all of these new innovations are happening so fast but it is also exciting. Embrace many of these technologies and how they may help entertain or even improve your life! Interestingly, the second fastest growing demographic for on-line gaming is Baby Boomers 65 and older. Mario Kart 8 anyone?
Now let’s move on to the markets. As readers of this semi-annual column know, I have been bullish on equity markets for most of the past 10 years. When I have been cautious it has only been for short periods with the caveat that longer term the markets would continue higher. In my opinion, we are in a secular bull market that could still have another 10 years left. Corrections will occur for sure, and even cyclical bear markets, but the trend will be higher. Here are some of the reasons why:
The backdrop for stocks continues to be very good with low interest rates, inflation and unemployment, reasonable valuations, lower taxes and regulations. The biggest positive in my opinion, however, is the incredible advancements of innovation the past 10 years, and those that are sure to come. These positives have overshadowed the short term negatives of trade, Brexit, Slowing China and Europe, political uncertainty and earnings growth decelerating. The third year of the presidential cycle has historically been the strongest and this year has not disappointed through the first half.
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we would expect prices to moderate and more downside probes. Although we are not nearly as bullish as we were entering the year, we are not bearish. We expect the market continues to move higher over the next three to five years.
We look forward to the future and these exciting innovations in technology, healthcare, energy, aerospace, food, robotics, retail and about everything we do and products we use. I’m excited to share my thoughts with our clients at a future meeting or our next phone call. We greatly appreciate our client relationships and the solutions we can provide to them to help meet specific goals. I will start my 28th year in the business with Raymond James in October. I love what I do and look forward to many more years.
Best regards,
Ken
Views expressed are those of the author’s and are not necessarily those of Raymond James & Associates and are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Information provided is general in nature, and is not a complete statement of all information necessary for making an investment decision, and is not a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is no assurance these trends will continue or that forecasts mentioned will occur. Investing always involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success.
