First Half of 2023
So far, the June lows have held but the market continues trading sideways. The market retested the June lows in September but held. Until we see a break above or below this range, we’re staying defensive.
Most of the market pundits seem to have an identical view that the first half of 2023 will continue to be weak with a modest recession. Then a solid rebound will follow the second half of the year. While we also think this is the likely scenario, we’ve learned over the years to be skeptical of such a large consensus. Thus, we think the market may surprise to the upside early in 2023 or possibly continue the current trading range into 2024. Stay defensive but open to opportunities during sell- offs.
This type of market can be ideal for dollar- cost averaging into equity mutual funds. There also appears to be value in one and two-year CD’s and structured notes. Strategies such as structured notes that offer market yields with some downside protection may work well in the current environment and resonates with many of our clients.
Asset- based long term care is another area of interest for many of our pre-retiree clients. These newer policies offer future protection for long term care expenses in-home or away and offer a tax-free death benefit if the policy is not needed. It addresses the negative sentiment around “use it or lose it” of traditional long-term care.
We maintain a bullish long-term stance on the equity markets but prefer dividend paying stocks over growth. We are also warming up to the international stocks due to their very attractive valuation and outperformance over the U.S. in 2022.
We very much appreciate the confidence, trust and loyalty of our clients and look to the future with optimism.
Best regards,
Ken
Any opinions are those of Kenneth M. Lampos and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the forgoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not indicative of future results. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility.
Structured Investments are complex investments and are not suitable for all investors. Each structured product may encompass its own unique set of characteristics, risks and return potential. Additionally, not every structured product will be suitable for every account approved to trade structured investments. Investors should be familiar with the unique characteristics, risks and return potential of each structured product, as well as those of the referenced asset before deciding whether to invest in the product. Any guarantees are backed by the issuing company.
Guarantees are based on the claims paying ability of the issuing company. Long Term Care Insurance or Asset Based Long Term Care Insurance Products may not be suitable for all investors. Surrender charges may apply for early withdrawals and, if made prior to age 59 ½, may be subject to a 10% federal tax penalty in addition to any gains being taxed as ordinary income. Please consult with a licensed financial professional when considering your insurance options.
