Featured Research

Energy Stat: No hope left for a 1.5-degree target, and we would say that regardless of how the U.S. election went
Clearly, the Paris Agreement has not succeeded in preventing global heating from topping 1.5 degrees. With that “high ambition” goal out of reach, does the base case goal of 2 degrees still stand a chance? The UN Environment Program predicts that existing climate policies around the world would result in an average global temperature increase of 3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100, versus pre-industrial levels. This outlook is substantially worse than every major climate agreement’s stated objective of limiting global heating to a maximum of 2 degrees, and preferably 1.5 degrees.

Intermediate oil & gas: Money can’t buy happiness, but it can buy back shares
Overall, we think the relative positioning of the small- and mid-cap producer group looks compelling with many of the equities trading at material discounts to both larger-cap peers and underlying resource value. While many of the business models have converged (at least on paper), we think differentiating by asset quality and duration, management track record and alignment, and valuation is a good starting point when coupled with a look at potential needle-moving catalysts.

Renewable energy and clean technology update
After three years of on-and-off investor panic over interest rates, we will take some good news where we can get it: at long last, there has been a meaningful and sustained drop in rates, which carries benefits for clean tech project fundamentals (lower cost of capital) as well as investor sentiment. Our industry update examines the key macro themes influencing the clean technology sector currently and an update on our view for every stock in our coverage universe.

Tariffs under Trump: An investor’s playbook
Tariffs and trade are at the center of president-elect Donald Trump’s fiscal and foreign policy agendas, and as his second term approaches, investor interest in their potential scope, timeline, likelihood and impact has grown significantly. Our base case is that tariffs – including those targeted at specific countries, such as China and Mexico, as well as a global tariff – are coming, but the specifics of their implementation remain very much up in the air.

AI infrastructure value chain: deep learning on parts benefitting from multi-year build and capex cycle
Our report lays out a framework for thinking about the AI boom from a supply chain perspective. We discuss how the demand for AI flows across multiple sectors (many not often associated with AI) including energy, industrials, data centers, wireless and fiber networks, telecommunications services, home broadband, media, software, chips, and communications infrastructure.

Marketplace autonomous AI around the corner
Looking ahead to the second marketplace era, we see autonomous robotics and AI/GenAI as critical technologies that have the potential to reshape unit economics, market share dynamics, and define the next $100B value creation. During the first marketplace era, Uber and DoorDash created more than $175B of market value due to a combination of scale achievements and efficient growth execution, cementing marquee internet sector status vs. non-mega ad platforms and web builders.

Robotaxis AI day
In our thematic robotaxi deep dive, we explore how AI software stack advances around transformer neural nets are being applied to autonomous perception, prediction, and planning systems. The architectural approaches range from a hybrid neural net heavy system at Waymo, a C++ to neural planner rewrite at Tesla, to a native end-to-end neural net at Wayve. A key objective is to build robotaxi unit economics bottoms-up to determine the value chain and economic impact for transportation networks Uber and Lyft.

The global airlines guide
Presented in this inaugural annual report is key information for 28 airlines across the Americas and Europe to be used as a primer and reference tool for investors. This includes key airline industry terms, geographic exposure, cost breakouts, top cities and routes, fleet details, labor contract timelines, major alliances, joint ventures, and more.