So you're telling me there's a chance

“What are the chances…?”

“… like one in a million.”

“So you’re telling me there’s a chance”.

Who knew that Jim Carrey would be supplying such words of wisdom in Dumb and Dumber?

For those who follow the NBA (and maybe some of those that don’t) the New Orleans Pelicans recently won the #1 pick in the NBA draft.  With this number 1 pick, the Pelicans selected Zion Williamson – a 18-year-old who is already 6’7 and 285lbs with amazing athletic ability.  This is a kid (18 years old!) who many believe will change the entire fortune of the team he plays for.

This was a shock, because the Pelicans came into the Draft Lottery with only a 6% chance of landing the top selection.  That means there was a 94% chance they would NOT get the #1 pick.  This got me to thinking about some other notable odds in sports history that did not turn out as expected and how many people look at financial planning:

1983 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship – NC State beat the vaunted Phi Slamma Jamma of Houston.  Who can forget Jim Valvano running around the court looking for someone to hug?

1980 Miracle on Ice – The US team of amateurs and college players beating the professionals of the Soviet Union in the midst of the cold war.

1990 Buster Douglas v Mike Tyson – Tyson, who was undefeated and had knocked out 33 of his 37 opponents, was knocked out by an (at that time) unknown fighter in Buster Douglas.

2009 Kentucky Derby – Mine That Bird, at 50/1 odds, not only wins, but wins by 7 lengths.

2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament – 135 straight wins for a #1 seed over a #16 seed.  That was until #16 University of Maryland - Baltimore County, beat #1 Virginia.  Virginia came back in 2019 and won the tournament.

What does this have to do with financial planning? Many advisors produce financial plans that show a “probability of success”.  They create a plan that is 40+ pages thick going over all the ins and outs, and shows you “the odds that you will NOT run out of money”.  Knowing the “odds” is great and can provide confidence.  So, what probability do you feel comfortable with when it comes to your money and retirement?  What do you do when the unexpected happens?  Financial Plans are not static 40-page documents. Not only is it important to have a plan, but it’s important to revisit that plan if/when the improbable happens.