Can we see the end of mask mandates?

The U.S. may have finally gained some momentum in the battle to slow the spread of Covid-19. Last week new Covid-19 cases dropped 25% to 825,000. A more detailed data analysis shows that new cases have been falling for four consecutive weeks reaching their lowest new case level since November. The decline in new cases isn’t the only promising news; recent data also shows current hospitalizations are down more than 50% to approximately 67,000 people.

This good news regarding case counts and hospitalizations, in conjunction with the pace of the vaccine rollout, provides hope that the worst of the pandemic is behind us. This data fits our expectations, laid out in our Outlook 2021 webinar, that the economy should be returning to normal by the opening games of the Olympics on July 23, 2021.

The news about the vaccines continues to be excellent and vaccine rollout data appears to be consistent with expectations. As of Feb 15, 2021, more than 53 million doses have been administered with more than 10% of the U.S. population having received at least one dose. All five vaccines with public results have eliminated Covid-19 deaths and drastically reduced hospitalizations. The sharp decline in hospitalizations may be attributable to the vaccine delivery protocols prioritizing front line workers and person groups at the greatest risk. At our current vaccine pace of 1.5 million doses every day we expect the Covid-19 data to remain positive and encouraging.

The path to herd immunity won’t be a straight line. We will see cases ebb and flow as events like spring break or new strains provide reasons and opportunities for the virus to spread. With that said, I am hopeful that we will see an easing of economic and social restrictions in the coming weeks. 

By Gary Greene

Sources: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; COVID Tracking Project

Any opinions are those of Gary Greene and not necessarily those of Raymond James.Ðhere is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete.