Timeless Wisdom

Farmers who wait for perfect weather never plant. If they watch every cloud, they never harvest. Ecclesiastes 11:4

I was reminded of this Bible verse recently, and I’m confident most of us can relate to the meaning of this verse.

Most people - myself included - want (and maybe even wait for) ‘perfect’ timing before we act. At times, we also may cease actions if circumstances change and the world around us no longer feels perfect.

The meaning of this verse and its application transcends most areas of our lives. With the recent pullback in the market, it immediately made me think of conversations I’ve had with clients, associates, and friends.

Many wondered why the market started moving lower earlier this month after 5 months of historic gains. Below you’ll see a list of the explanations I’ve heard from analysts, pundits, and others that came to my mind. This list is not exhaustive, but here we go:

The Fed is going to lower interest rates
The Fed is going to raise interest rates
The Fed will do nothing
Israel and Iran conflict
Russia and Ukraine conflict
China might invade Taiwan
Fears of another terrorist attack
Immigration
Mortgage rates are too high keeping buyers out of the market
Home prices are too high/Housing is a bubble
High oil prices will hurt the consumer
Low oil prices reflect weakness in the economy
Too much regulation
Too little regulation
Taxes are too high
The wealthy aren’t paying enough taxes
What if the Democrat candidate wins?
What if the Republican candidate wins?
Interest rates are too high
Interest rates aren’t high enough
The budget deficit is too high
The national debt is too large
Inflation
Unemployment is too low
Only a small number of stocks are driving the market higher
The separation of wealth is historically wide
Stock buybacks are the only factor supporting the stock market
The stock market is overvalued

I’ll reiterate: this list is not exhaustive. I’m certain I will think of other reasons we could have concerns after I finish writing, but this isn’t the point.

Investing is a lot like life – it requires courage and perspective. Circumstances rarely look perfect when it’s time for us to act (invest) or persist (stay invested).

Much like life, when we step back from the current reality, we gain perspective. When you look at a long-term line chart of the U.S. stock market, you see the line moves up and to the right over time despite the events that inspired fear, uncertainty, and doubt along the way.

When asked by a friend recently what I thought of the current market, I summarized my thoughts into this concise statement: “This is the dip everyone says they want to buy but never do because they’re mesmerized by worry.”

I was not attempting to call a bottom in the market with my comment. I was simply making the point that as long-term investors – like other areas of our lives - we’re often rewarded for taking a step of faith into uncertainty.

It’s nearly impossible to predict when the market will resume its march higher, but I’m confident it will. I’m also confident that as time gives us perspective, investors with the courage to act or persist - despite the uncertainty - will eventually be rewarded as they have many times throughout history.

Please do not hesitate to let me know if you have questions you would like to discuss, and please feel free to share this note with any friends, family, or associates that you think could benefit!

Any opinions are those of Michael Anania and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.