What (Probably) Won't Happen in 2023
Expect the unexpected.
Taking the approach of what probably won’t happen in 2023 might be the better way to view an outlook on the new year as opposed to what will happen in 2023.
Here are some of the best “What (Probably) Won’t Happen in 2023” items:
- The Stock Market Probably Won’t Give Us “Average” Returns
Most people quote the long-term average for the stock marketing being between 8-10%.
How often has this occurred in a calendar year? Once. 1983. A 9.97% return.
Markets are inherently challenging to predict. Which is why we believe it is extremely difficult if not impossible to time the market.
In fact, there is a 70% chance that the markets will be up or down more than 10% in any year. Luckily, big moves to the upside of over 10% have happened in 56% of all calendar years. But even the down years with losses over 10% or more happen 12% of the time.
The best investors are masters at becoming comfortable with this discomfort.
- Everything in Your Portfolio Probably Won’t “Work” in 2023
If you’re properly diversified, you shouldn’t expect everything in your portfolio to fire on all cylinders.
Diversification is only working in the long-term if some investments don’t work as well as other investments in the short-term.
It would be nice if stocks, bonds, cash, real estate, and alternative investments all have great returns in the new year, but chances are something is going to perform poorly even if 2023 is better for investors than 2022.
- People are Probably Going to be Unhappy with the Economy Regardless of What Happens
Unfortunately, there are always going to be winners and losers no matter the economic environment.
When inflation is too low, the narrative is wages are stagnating. When inflation is too high, the narrative is rising wages are causing problems for price stability.
If we go into a recession in 2023, some people and businesses will be hurt more than others. If the economy continues to grow, some people and businesses will benefit more than others.
- You Probably Won’t Pick the Best-Performing Stock in 2023
Can you name the top performing stock in 2022? I’ll give you credit if you can name any of the top three…
- Target Hospitality
- Scorpio Tankers
- Ardmore Shipping Company
Did you guess any of those three? The good news is you don’t have to pick the best stocks each and every year to be a successful investor. Remember #1? Staying the course and investing in quality mutual funds will often set you up for success.
As always, thank you for the introduction to your friends and family that so many of you have made. We are honored to serve you! As a service to our clients, we are happy to act as a sounding board for your friends and family. If any of them should need a second opinion on their financial situation, introduce them to www.striblingwhalen.com or call us at 678-989-0048.
