Is Sky the Limit?
I ordered a turkey special for lunch today which reminded me that I need to write a new blog. Note: See my August 28, 2018 blog if you need an explanation. Anyway, it sparked me to think about some of my other blog posts and caused me to review the December 22, 2017 post announcing my 2018 predictions. Caution: You’re going to have to stay with me on this. It is going to be rather circuitous.
One of my predictions was patently wrong: the Eagles did not fail in the playoffs. In fact they captured the Super Bowl with substitute QB Nick Foles, who is still around despite persistent trade rumors all summer. Nick took a seat yesterday as Carson Wentz is back calling the signals for the reigning Super Bowl champions and looking as good as ever. Did you hear that Cowboys fans?
I was right about the market being full of surprises, the key surprise being it’s resilience in the face of trade wars and higher oil prices. And tax reform has had enormous positive effects on the economy as US GDP keeps rising, unemployment keeps falling, and capital spending is finally starting to occur in significant quantities.
Bitcoin’s tumble has not yet reached $5000, but prices for this crypto-currency have taken quite a tumble since last December. It was a bubble back then, and there is likely more to go on the downside if you want my opinion. FYI, the Wall Street Journal reported today that no bitcoin ETF’s have been granted approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission thus far. Let’s hope the SEC continues to protect investors from this speculative investment.
Finally, so far this year I have had a chance to read a number of good books. My desk pile, which started at seven, is down to one. My current book, London’s Triumph, discusses London’s development in the sixteenth century, a seemingly boring subject that has proven most interesting. Stephen Alford’s book examines the emergence of England as a global economic powerhouse and London as a world trading center.
Speaking of London, Philadelphia’s own Comcast Corporation won the bidding for Sky, a British broadcaster. Comcast agreed to pay $39 billion to expand their global offerings. Over the last decade, I have watched as Comcast constructed two gigantic office towers right across the street from my office, altering the skyline of Philadelphia. During that time they have become one of the largest media companies in the world. Let’s hope that Comcast does not suffer from what Nobel economist Richard Thaler describes as the “Winner’s Curse”. Professor Thaler is a provocative but pragmatic thinker (see October 12, 2017 blog for additional info). It is fair to say that winning the bidding war is not the end of the battle facing Comcast. In my opinion, Philadelphia needs this corporate titan to continue thriving…and another run to the Super Bowl wouldn’t hurt either.
Ralph McDevitt
September 24, 2018
Views expressed are the author's and are subject to change. The prominent underlying risk of using bitcoin as a medium of exchange is that it is not authorized or regulated by any central bank. Bitcoin issuers are not registered with the SEC, and the bitcoin marketplace is currently unregulated. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are a very speculative investment and involve a high degree of risk. Investors must have the financial ability, sophistication/experience and willingness to bear the risks of an investment, and a potential total loss of their investment. Securities that have been classified as Bitcoin-related cannot be purchased or deposited in Raymond James client accounts.
