4th Quarter 2023 Client Letter

Market positives: An easier Fed and solid corporate earnings

Happy new year and I hope you and your family members had a wonderful holiday season.

It was an exciting end of the year for many who traveled and welcomed the seasonal change in temperatures. It was just as exciting to see the equity and bond markets rally into 2024.

This past quarter has been good for investors. Which brings back the many times I have written “spending time in the market as opposed to trying to time the market, in order to achieve outstanding results.”

It is difficult to stick to a sound financial plan when you listen to the media and negative analysts continue to mention recession, geopolitics and war. Markets continue to climb the wall of worry as it did in 2023.

The good news in 2024, S&P500 corporate earnings look solid. We don’t believe the bull market in stocks is over…but we expect lower returns from here due to high valuations. Bonds are offering investors positive real returns again if the FOMC begins lowering rates. Volatility will continue for equities and bond markets in the new year as growth continues to slowly expand, inflation moderates and probability of a contentious presidential election.

History shows since the S&P 500 index began. In 19 of 23 years (83%) provided positive performance in election years.

Market positives as we look into 2024. A FOMC that is at the end of hiking rates and solid potential for corporate earnings growth. Headwinds for the markets include stock valuation relative to interest rates and a US Presidential election.

In conclusion, stay focused on the long term, equity and bond investors should expect volatility before resolving to the upside at some point.

I believe every solid relationship should center on open communication. You have several options to access the information you need to know about your portfolio, my firm, Raymond James and the financial markets. In addition to our in-person meetings and one-on-one calls, we'll also communicate with you through other channels, such as our website, newsletters and social media. You have already been receiving regular updates and emails from me. These communications are designed to provide you with insight into the ever-evolving financial markets and help build the confidence that comes from working with an experienced advisory team. If you haven't already done so, I encourage you to go to my website to learn more about my firm and access some of the recent research and articles available to you. I also utilize social media channels such as Linkedln. If you already have an account on Linkedln consider following me. These channels provide an excellent way for me to keep you up to date with relevant, timely news. Please let me know how you prefer to receive important communications and how frequently. We'll do our best to deliver. Guiding you toward financial independence is a collaborative process, and I hope you feel comfortable reaching out to me whenever you have questions, concerns or even new ideas to help me better serve you.

Regards,

Elliot Weissmark, CFP^®, CPFA

Senior Vice President, Investments