2nd quarter of 2020

I hope you and your family members are safe and healthy. It seems as though we have gone through a lifetime of events since my last letter.

COVID-19 disrupted life as we know it and causing lockdowns, not just domestically but globally. As the economy starts to re-open, the storm clouds are parting and there seem to be some rays of sunshine that are pointing to early signs of recovery. However, there is still some work to do to repair all the damage from the storms as all areas of the economy recover at varying rates.

With the U.S. economy officially in a recession, it is important to begin to focus on the potential recovery. While everyone tries to characterize the shape of the recovery with an "alphabet soup" of letters (V-shaped, U-shaped, L-shaped, W-shaped, K-shaped, etc.), one thing that is apparent is that although we are seeing some early stages of improvement; areas such as Air Travel and Hotels are still down over 70% and 60%, respectively. Restaurants are beginning to reopen, but given social distancing measures, those that have re-opened are only seating just above 50% of diners compared to last year levels. And finally, with work from home measures still in place for many in the US, it is no surprise that traffic congestion is still down 17% from last year. On the other side, ISM manufacturing recently got back into expansionary territory, e-commerce continues to do well, and China, which was early to see the impact of COVID-19, has seen traffic congestion recover above 2019 levels.

Overall, there continues to be disconnect between the economic picture and the equities market. While some may think that they have missed the sharp snapback, historically, following the prior 9 best quarterly returns, momentum continues and the next quarter and 12-months forward returns remain strong. Additionally, keeping a long-term perspective, if this is the beginning of a new bull market, bull markets tend to be long-lasting. In the near-term, after such a strong return, would not be surprising to see the rate of ascent cool off, similar to what was seen in 2009. Moreover, it is unusual for markets to move in straight lines, and pullbacks of 10-15% would not be unusual. If periods of volatility increase, we recommend using pullbacks as buying opportunities for quality equites.

It's time to think about something other than COVID, statues, the election, and defunding the police. How about our financial wellness?

Many of you during this downtime have taken the time to review their finances, consolidated debt, refinance their homes, pay down student loans, perform home improvements or taken over chores they would normally pay someone else to do. Due to COVID some have contacted us to review life insurance policies and discuss strategies to protect your assets in the event of a need for long term care.

As a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ we can evaluate your old policies and assist with new strategies to protect you and your family. The most common type of long-term care is personal care—help with everyday activities, also called "activities of daily living." These activities include bathing, dressing, grooming, using the toilet, eating, and moving around—for example, getting out of bed and into a chair. Long-term care also includes community services such as meals, adult day care, and transportation services. These services may be provided free or for a fee.

People often need long-term care when they have a serious, ongoing health condition or disability. The need for long-term care can arise suddenly, such as after a heart attack or stroke. Most often, however, it develops gradually, as people get older and frailer or as an illness or disability gets worse.

I believe every solid relationship should center on open communication. You have several options to access the information you need to know about your portfolio, my firm, Raymond James and the financial markets. In addition to our in-person meetings and one-on-one calls, we'll also communicate with you through other channels, such as our website, newsletters and social media. You have already been receiving regular updates and emails from me. These communications are designed to provide you with insight into the ever-evolving financial markets and help build the confidence that comes from working with an experienced advisory team. If you haven't already done so, I encourage you to go to my website to learn more about my firm and access some of the recent research and articles available to you. I also utilize social media channels such as Linkedln. If you already have an account on Linkedln consider following me. These channels provide an excellent way for me to keep you up to date with relevant, timely news. Please let me know how you prefer to receive important communications and how frequently. We'll do our best to deliver. Guiding you toward financial independence is a collaborative process, and I hope you feel comfortable reaching out to me whenever you have questions, concerns or even new ideas to help me better serve you.

Regards,

Elliot Weissmark, CFP^®, CPFA
Senior Vice President, Investments

Any opinion are those of Elliot Weissmark, CFP^®, CPFA and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

The cost and availability of Long Term Care insurance depend on factors such as age, health, and the type and amount of insurance purchased. These policies have exclusions and/o limitations. As with most financial decisions, there are expenses associated with the purchase of Long Term Care insurance. Guarantees are based on the claims paying ability of the insurance company.