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Economic Monitor – Weekly Commentary
by Eugenio Alemán
Extending the runway to achieve the inflation target
December 20, 2024
Since we are not going to publish Weekly Economics on December 27, 2024, we will take this opportunity to say farewell to 2024 and to all our readers, we want to wish you a very happy holiday season and a very prosperous New Year 2025!
Although we expect 2025 to be another good year for the U.S. economy, it will not be without its challenges, just as we had during 2024. For one, the rate of inflation, while much closer to the Federal Reserve (Fed) target, will remain higher than the 2.0% target, which means that the Fed will have to continue to recalibrate its monetary policy stance. As we saw after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week and as we argued in Weekly Economics last week, the current and expected monetary policy path, that is, the one shown by the September dot plot, is no longer conducive to the achievement of the 2.0% inflation target and thus we expected the Fed to change its interest rate path to two rate cuts next year, from four estimated in September, and two cuts during 2026.
The path for monetary policy in 2026 is so far away that it is not that relevant at this time. But the path for monetary policy in 2025 is very relevant and although we think the Fed did the right thing in lowering expectations for rate cuts in 2025, the actual change in rates will remain in flux because economic activity continues to defy expectations and continues to make the Fed’s job of bringing inflation down to the 2.0% target more challenging. Even though we expect overall growth in 2025 to be below overall growth in 2024, we are still expecting growth to be above trend and that has the potential to keep the rate of inflation north of the 2.0% target.
Although the Fed did not need a recession to bring down inflation, the path to the 2.0% target becomes more difficult if the economy continues to grow at current rates or if it stays above potential economic growth, as we expect it will over the next several years.
At this time, Fed officials seem to be okay with extending the runway for the soft landing, that is, pushing the achievement of its policy target into 2027 in order to give an opportunity for the economy to slow down and help inflation to come down. However, it is unknown if markets and/or political pressures will give the Fed such a long runway or if they are going to start pushing the Fed to do more to bring down inflation and with a faster schedule, in which case even two cuts in 2025 may not come to fruition. It is true that Fed officials seem to think that the current path is going to allow them to hit the target, but two more years seems to be a rather long period of time in terms of achieving an inflation target that has been so close.
The Fed is probably betting that higher long-term interest rates even if it continues to lower the federal funds rate will keep mortgage rates relatively high and help extend the runway in order to buy time for inflation to continue to move down. The risk is that higher interest rates for longer will add more pressure to the fiscal accounts, as interest payments on the debt will continue to take a larger bite at tax revenues and become an even more serious issue.
PCE price index better than expected in November
The release of the PCE price index earlier today was a bright spot after the disappointing reaction from markets to the change in the path of interest rates declines announced after the conclusion of the FOMC meeting earlier this week. Although this release may be prone to revisions in the coming quarters due to the timing of the release, which occurred more than a week earlier due to the holidays, the overall report was good and should tend to calm market anxiety (See the indicator in the pages below).
Changes to our forecast
We have made changes to our forecast in order to reflect several factors over the last few months. From a monetary policy perspective, we have changed our forecast for the number of rate cuts in 2025 to two 25 basis points cuts compared to our previous four cuts. For 2026 we also have two rate cuts.
In terms of economic growth, we have increased economic growth slightly in 2025 while leaving growth for 2026 unchanged. At the same time, we have increased our forecast for the PCE price index to reflect a slower pace for the ongoing disinflationary environment. For a complete view of the changes, please see the forecast table on the next page.
Economic and market conditions are subject to change.
Opinions are those of Investment Strategy and not necessarily those Raymond James and are subject to change without notice the information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur last performance may not be indicative of future results.
Consumer Price Index is a measure of inflation compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Studies. Currencies investing are generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Their markets are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising.
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components. It provides a indication of the health of small businesses in the U.S., which account of roughly 50% of the nation's private workforce.
The producer price index is a price index that measures the average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. Its importance is being undermined by the steady decline in manufactured goods as a share of spending.
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