The Week in Review 9/20/22

“The sea is dangerous and its storms terrible, but these obstacles have never been sufficient reason to remain ashore." - Ferdinand Magellan

We have just returned from 9 days in Iceland with our sons… a country that is completely desolate in most places, and yet so very beautiful in many places.

I highly recommend you consider going, it is one of the most breathtaking places on the planet!

As we try to shake off a significant case of jet lag (we returned just last night), we will try to put this all into perspective, briefly…

Scene two, inflation numbers come in “hotter than expected” and stocks are for sale again. Haven’t we seen this movie before?

As we can see by the chart there could be a top forming, yet “Fedspeak” could not be more aggressive… suggesting even a 100 basis point hike this week?

We will know soon enough, but much is already baked into the markets.

Will the Fed begin to look through the windshield, rather than the rear view mirror?

Their history doesn’t speak well for itself… they have messed this up before and thus investor confidence is low. And it is September, notoriously the worst month of the year, historically.

October however historically begins the best 6 calendar months of the year, perhaps we can hope to see some more rational Fedspeak, and the markets should calm.

We are glad to return to the US and all of its many comforts… we have so very much to be thankful for!!

Have a good week!!

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