Gas Station

“If you fuel your journey on the opinions of others,
you are going to run out of gas.”
~Steve Maraboli,
behavioral scientist, and military veteran.

Question: I read that overall gasoline sales are down. Is this because we’re driving less or because we have more fuel-efficient vehicles?

Answer: If only it were that simple! In the United States, retail trade sales, which includes gasoline sales, are reported by specific distribution channels. Gasoline distribution channels are gas stations. Sales at these locations, which are often convenience stores, include all the ancillary merchandise they have for sale. The reported numbers include items such as snack food, soda, gum, coffee, tobacco, and more. If you’ve ever been to a Buc-ees, Wawa or even RaceTrac, you know what I mean.

Sales of just gasoline, as well as total sales at gasoline stations have been depressed, or at least unchanged over the last few decades. Gasoline stations in general make more profits from convenience stores’ sales than from the sale of gasoline. The reduction in traffic has hurt their ability to improve the bottom line. Advancements with more fuel-efficient cars getting better mileage per gallon and having more electric vehicles (EVs) on the road have contributed to reduced gasoline sales. We may also be driving less as post-pandemic behaviors and habits changed.

Shopping
Interestingly enough, other retail distribution channels have seen similar declines as those noted for gasoline sales, but for varied reasons. Distribution outlets such as department stores, furniture stores, and merchandise locations in general have lost ground to online vendors. Just take a look at strip malls and shopping centers for evidence of the boon in online distribution with the pandemic and after. Many consumers who appreciate the convenience and time savings of online shopping haven’t necessarily gone back to shopping at physical locations. This phenomenon also reduced miles driven, and therefore, gasoline purchased. Before the pandemic, the non-store retail distribution system (online) represented about 15% of sales. Today, online sales are approximately 22% of total retail trade as documented by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analytics (BEA).

Granted, we’re all tired of discussing how the pandemic changed our lives. The impact and affects range from work to education, communication, travel, tourism, and shopping, whether for clothing, prescriptions, or food. According to Statista.com, the combined number of full-time and part-time Amazon employees was 563,100 in the first quarter of 2018, rose to 1.62 million in the first quarter of 2022, and leveled out at 1.521 million in the first quarter of 2024. Net sales revenue for Amazon in 2018 was $232.89 billion and closed out 2023 at S574.78 billion, understanding that inflation did influence these numbers.

Housing
The personal income and expenditure report for May which included the rate of inflation, shows progress in meeting the Fed’s 2% annualized inflation rate after the supercharged inflation rates experienced as we came out of the pandemic. Housing costs are still keeping inflation higher than what we’d like to see at this point in the recovery. The expectation is for housing prices to weaken as inventory increases in both the existing and new build markets; simple supply and demand influencing prices. This won’t affect costs immediately, yet it is another good news item for Fed officials as they look ahead to next year’s inflation outlook and their ability to cut interest rates.

Back to Gas
Total vehicle miles driven did decline during the pandemic but are actually now a bit higher than pre-pandemic at 3.273 million miles for the past twelve months as reported by the U.S. Federal Highway Administration. Those with in-home EV charging stations can recharge at home and skip the impulse buys and shopping excursion detours. Those of us with our internal combustion engine cars (ICE) aren’t able to top off the tank online, meaning we’ll still make those trips to the gas station which often include additional purchases. In answering your question, gas sales are down, but not out. Americans remain on the move. Stay focused and plan accordingly.

The opinions expressed are those of the writer as of June 30, 2024, but not necessarily those of Raymond James & Associates, and subject to change at any time based on market conditions and other factors. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Reference to specific companies is only for illustrative purposes and does not constitute a recommendation.

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