Weekly Newsletter 12/27/24

Good afternoon on this final Friday of 2024. We wish you and your family a Healthy and Happy New Year.

This time of year brings out the “history of 2024” fluff pieces on pop culture, politics, sports, etc. We are cautiously optimistic for what 2025 brings, however, I will save the prognostications to those with nothing at stake. History tells us the average S&P 500 return over the past 45 years has been +11% annually…but the average Intra-Year decline is an average of -14%. The 25% swing is known in finance jargon as “volatility.” This year we had above average returns in the S&P and below average volatility. Often times the combo of above average returns and below average volatility creates investor complacency &/or false expectations. Simply put, I believe the average investor has underappreciated this year’s returns. I understand (mostly) why this is when considering the impact of inflation on our purchasing power, emotional investment moves (i.e. fears on the election outcome, geopolitical conflicts, etc.) and our built-in negativity bias. Stay balanced my friends.

US equities are lower in Friday midday trading, near worst levels. This follows stocks putting in a mixed performance in an uneventful Thursday session, however, still on track for strong weekly gains following a big selloff last week. Today, the Mag 7 names are down, with the broader tech sector underperforming as well. Not much in the green.

As we ring in the New Year some possible helpful advice from Jesse Livermore written 85 years ago. Jesse was the original Wolf of Wall St and at one time was one of the richest people in the world only to let complacency and false expectations leave him penniless at his death. Just prior to his death he wrote his “Trading Rules.” Below are some of my favorites from his list of 21.

• Nothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating or investing in securities and commodities. (my favorite rule)
• Few people ever make money on tips. Beware of inside information. If there was easy money lying around, no one would be forcing it into your pocket. (my second favorite)
• Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week of the year.
• Markets are never wrong—opinions often are.
• One should never permit speculative ventures to run into investments.
• The human side of every person is the greatest enemy of the average investor or speculator.
• Wishful thinking must be banished.
• Big movements take time to develop.

I look forward to working together next year on whatever challenges await. The link below contains other financial articles of possible interest.

“Hope smiles from the threshold of the year to come, whispering, 'It will be happier.'”
Alfred Lord Tennyson

Thank you,

Kyle

KYLE CHRISTIANSON, CFP®
Financial Advisor
Raymond James & Associates, Inc.
1421 Pine Ridge Rd, Ste 300
Naples, FL 34109
Toll Free (800) 843-2025 | Direct (239) 513-6525 | Main (239) 513-6500 | Fax (239) 596-5474
Kyle.Christianson@RaymondJames.com

Any opinions are those of Kyle Christianson and not necessarily those of RJA or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. This is not a recommendation to purchase or sell the stocks of the companies mentioned. Leading Economic Indicators are selected economic statistics that have proven valuable as a group in estimating the direction and magnitude of economic change. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based upon market conditions and availability. Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated.