Weekly Newsletter 11/22/24
Good afternoon,
Wishing you and your family a wonderful Thanksgiving. Our office will be closed Thursday and close early on Friday. As many of you know, Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday. The tradition of family and friends getting together to share in a feast, time together in a relaxing atmosphere and reflection of the great bounty this country provides is something that never gets old.
A personal finance note for our retirees: Social Security beneficiaries will get a 2.5% raise in 2025, the lowest increase since 2021. Recipients this year received 3.2%. The 5.9% raise in ’23 and 8.7% in ’22 were the biggest increases in four decades, however, as you can see the trend is not your friend. Much like wages in general, price inflation has risen more dramatically than have incomes. My most used cliché in this business rings true again: “It’s not what you make, it’s what you keep.” Senior Citizens League research shows that nearly 70% of seniors depend on Social Security for more than half their income and is the primary source of income for 40% of older Americans. Several advocacy groups are calling for a change in how the cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) is calculated. Currently the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W) is used to calculate the adjustment. The Senior Citizens League as well as AARP support a Consumer Price Index more suited for senior expenses (CPI-E). I didn’t know we had so many different calculations…core CPI, CPI-W, CPI-U…The fine folks at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will be happy to make one up for you any time. The alphabet soup in our government agencies is nearly comical.
In a similar theme, U.S. stocks finished higher on Thursday with the S&P 500 up for a fourth straight session. Stock markets are on track for weekly gains after coming under pressure last week following the big post-election bump the week prior. Item of note this week:
Europe’s economy is a mess…Eurozone flash PMI for November signals weak growth ahead, with trade risks, politics weighing; ECB officials call for European reforms, reject new EU debt in wake of Trump's election; Germany Q3 growth revised lower, with strong chance of winter recession; UK PMIs show first contraction in output from companies since 2023; UK retail sales slump in October as Budget uncertainty weighs on consumers.
Positive momentum in housing. October existing homes sales were 3960K, rising 3.4% m/m and beating consensus 3925K. The worst of downturn in home sales could be over, with increasing inventory leading to more transactions. Home builder confidence the highest in seven months. Headwinds persist as mortgage rates are back up to 7% on average for a 30yr traditional mortgage.
A tail of two retailers. Target misses and cuts guidance as Walmart beats and raises guidance. The results from both largely supportive of consumer resilience theme, though Walmart an outsized beneficiary of the value-proposition dynamic.
Latest Fedspeak continue to stress careful approach to further cuts.
Thank you as always for your time and the link below contains additional financial articles and information.
https://www.raymondjames.com/evangelista/resources
“The thankful receiver bears a plentiful harvest.”
William Blake
“My cooking is so bad my kids thought Thanksgiving was to commemorate Pearl Harbor.”
Phyllis Diller
Thank you,
Kyle
KYLE CHRISTIANSON, CFP®
Financial Advisor
Raymond James & Associates, Inc.
1421 Pine Ridge Rd, Ste 300
Naples, FL 34109
Toll Free (800) 843-2025 | Direct (239) 513-6525 | Main (239) 513-6500 | Fax (239) 596-5474
Kyle.Christianson@RaymondJames.com
Any opinions are those of Kyle Christianson and not necessarily those of RJA or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. This is not a recommendation to purchase or sell the stocks of the companies mentioned. Leading Economic Indicators are selected economic statistics that have proven valuable as a group in estimating the direction and magnitude of economic change. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based upon market conditions and availability. Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated.
