Weekly Newsletter 11/8/24

Good afternoon and thank you for checking in.

Monday is Veteran’s Day. Our office and the stock markets are open. Many government offices and banks will be closed in observation. Pasquale, Letty and I have tremendous respect for those who served and currently serve this great country and its citizens. Veterans Day was first observed as “Armistice Day” 1 year after the conclusion of WWI in 1919. "A day to be dedicated to the cause of world peace and to be thereafter celebrated and known as 'Armistice Day.'" In 1945, World War II veteran Raymond Weeks from Birmingham, Alabama, had the idea to expand Armistice Day to celebrate all veterans, not just those who died in World War I. Weeks led a delegation to Gen. Dwight Eisenhower, who supported the idea of National Veterans Day. Weeks led the first national celebration in 1947 in Alabama and annually until his death in 1985. Congress amended the bill on June 1, 1954, replacing "Armistice" with "Veterans," and it has been known as Veterans Day since.

US equities mostly higher in Friday trading, though upside limited. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both extending yesterday's fresh all-time highs, on pace for big weekly gains. A bit much in our opinion, however we will take the gains. I would advise anyone who asked, the recent gains might prove to be short lived or at least a portion of the gains will be given back. For now, outperformers include moneycenter banks, cruise lines, airlines, hotels, home improvement stores, managed care, and telecom. Big tech narrowly mixed. Underperformers include semis, machinery, cosmetics, casinos, apparel retail, regional banks, road and rails, and networking/IT equipment. Treasuries mostly firmer with curve flattening; 10Y back below pre-election 4.30% level. Dollar index up 0.2%. Gold down 0.4%. WTI crude down 1.9%. Copper down over 2%.

Quiet finish to a busy week. China provided details around a $1.4T local government debt swap program, with the headline figure larger than expected. However, still some renewed disappointment about Beijing's perceived emphasis on stabilization rather than stimulus. US focus remains on the post-election trade. Market has been underpinned by unwinding of election-related hedges, VIX (volatility) retreat, favorable seasonality, return of buybacks, animal spirits/FOMO, and deregulation and tax cut expectations. Also, some more recent support from rate stabilization following big initial post-election backup. While pain trade still seen higher, some concern about tariff implications for both growth and inflation.

The term animal spirits and FOMO or Fear Of Missing Out was mentioned above. Animal spirits, in my opinion, is best thought of as the simplistic Fear v Greed and FOMO is a biproduct of greed. Prior to the election, we mentioned the ~$6.1 trillion in savings and money market accounts…effectively “money on the sideline” in Wall St parlance. This was done out of Fear. Come Wednesday as the market opened ~3% higher $20B flowed into US equity funds…US small-cap funds noted biggest daily additions since March. Retail loves buying high…

In a unanimous decision, The Federal Reserve yesterday cut rates by 0.25%, as widely expected. Very few changes to meeting statement (removed a phrase about Fed having gained "more confidence" about inflation trajectory and substituted "progress" for prior "further progress"), which Powell stressed were not meant to send any signal. Powell brushed off several questions about Trump's election, saying members do not guess, speculate, or assume about potential policy developments. However, said flatly he would not resign if asked and stated president has no legal authority to demote Fed leadership (Trump said in July he would let Powell serve out his term, Bloomberg). Talked up both continued economic strength and disinflationary trends, noting 80% of core PCE back to low levels with housing-cost pressures to begin catching up. Offered no clear December guidance but said Fed will go "where the data lead us." Analysts found meeting largely unremarkable and still largely see Fed on track for a 25bp December cut.

The link below contains additional financial articles and resources.

https://www.raymondjames.com/evangelista/resources

“This world of ours... must avoid becoming a community of dreadful fear and hate, and be, instead, a proud confederation of mutual trust and respect.”-- Dwight D. Eisenhower

Thank you,

Kyle

KYLE CHRISTIANSON, CFP®

Financial Advisor

Raymond James & Associates, Inc.

1421 Pine Ridge Rd, Ste 300

Naples, FL 34109

Toll Free (800) 843-2025 | Direct (239) 513-6525 | Main (239) 513-6500 | Fax (239) 596-5474

Kyle.Christianson@RaymondJames.com

Any opinions are those of Kyle Christianson and not necessarily those of RJA or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. This is not a recommendation to purchase or sell the stocks of the companies mentioned. Leading Economic Indicators are selected economic statistics that have proven valuable as a group in estimating the direction and magnitude of economic change. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based upon market conditions and availability. Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated.