Weekly Newsletter 9/27/24

Good afternoon everyone,

Greetings from wet and soggy southwest Florida. Following some anxious times with the arrival yesterday of hurricane Helene, we are happy to report that we are all fine. Rain and wind and sometimes significant gusts were what we had to endure, but no flooding. Unfortunately some areas of SW Florida did not fare as well especially with flooding. Thanks to everyone who checked in. Considering what we went through with Ian two years ago, this was a non event for us.

Looking at the capital markets today, US equities are higher in Friday trading. Comes after US equities finished higher on Thursday with S&P hitting another ATH and Nasdaq up for a fourth straight session. Outperformers include energy, autos, homebuilders, rails, media, apparel, managed care, and utilities. Many China tech names adding to big WTD gains. Mag 7 names are mixed. Laggards include discounters (COST-US ), semis, software, networking/communications, hospitals, cruiselines, gold miners, and obesity pharma (sell-side commentary). Treasuries firmer with yields a bit higher WTD. Dollar index down 0.1%; Gold down 0.8%. Bitcoin futures up 2.5%. WTI crude down 0.2% and off 5%+ for the week.

Fairly quiet finish to the week. A few dynamics in focus, including additional China policy support headlines, dovish leaning inflation data out of Europe and US and hawkish takeaways from Japan LDP leadership/PM development. Ishibi said this morning monetary policy will remain accommodative. Stocks on track for a third straight week of good gains with China stimulus and related pain trades the big story. Broader risk on a function of combination of easier monetary policy and soft-landing traction (Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP estimate now at +3.1%). However, valuation concerns continue to get some heightened attention, while also thoughts election uncertainty could act as a near-term overhang before favorable Q4 seasonality kicks in.

Core PCE inflation up just 0.1% in August, below 0.2% consensus; up to 2.7% y/y (a bit higher than July's 2.6%). Personal income and consumption both higher, but decelerated from prior month's pace. Final UMich consumer sentiment rose from the flash reading, rising more than forecast. Inflation expectations unchanged. Release noted sentiment remains below historical averages but has been improving as economic prospects brighten (though presidential election remains a wild card). Fed Governor Bowman also speaks today, though she has already noted this week that she favors a more measured pace of rate cuts. Thanks for checking in. Our weekly resources are attached. Have a wonderful weekend.

Pasquale

https://www.raymondjames.com/evangelista/resources

We have a system that increasingly taxes work and subsidizes nonwork.

Milton Friedman

Thank you,

Pasquale Evangelista

Sr. Vice President, Investments

Raymond James & Associates, Inc.

1421 Pine Ridge Rd. Suite 300

Naples, FL 34109

(239) 513-6528 Direct - (800) 843-2025 -Toll Free - (239) 938-4078 Cell - (239) 596-5474 Fax

Pasquale.Evangelista@RaymondJames.com

www.raymondjames.com/evangelista

This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Expressions of opinion are those of Investment Strategy and not necessarily those of Raymond James and are provided as of the date above and subject to change. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the economy, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Consumer Sentiment is a consumer confidence index published monthly by the University of Michigan. The index is normalized to have a value of 100 in the first quarter of 1966. Each month at least 500 telephone interviews are reconducted of a contiguous United States sample.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE): The PCE is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The change in the PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior.

The U.S. Dollar Index is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies. The Index goes up when the U.S. dollar gains "strength" when compared to other currencies. Source: FactSet, data as of 6/16/2023

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated. The LBMA Gold Price and LBMA Silver Price are the global benchmark prices for unallocated gold and silver delivered in London. SS&P GSCI Crude Oil is an index tracking changes in the spot price for crude oil. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors.

Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary

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