October Client Newsletter
The Fed lops 50 basis points off the fed funds rate
Last month, the Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut since early 2020, lopping 50 basis points (bp, 1 bp = 0.01 percentage points) off the fed funds rate, bringing the key rate down to 4.75 – 5.00%.
The decision officially ends the most aggressive rate hike cycle in more than 40 years.
Some investors were concerned that a 50 bp move might signal Fed officials are worried about the economy.
The unemployment rate is up from its cyclical low, and job growth has slowed; however, most economic indicators suggest the economy continues to expand, and remarks by Fed Chief Powell soothed investors’ concerns.
For now, investors are taking Powell at his word that an economic soft landing is still in play.
So, why did the Fed decide on a more aggressive 50 bp reduction rather than a more modest 25? Typically, the Fed prefers more measured approaches when it enacts policy changes unless policymakers are reacting to unwanted shifts in economic activity, such as soaring inflation.
During his press conference, Powell emphasized that the “economy is in good shape.”
But he implied the larger rate cut is a pre-emptive move. It’s insurance against an economic slowdown.
“We're not waiting for (rising layoffs) because there is thinking that the time to support the labor market is when it's strong and not when we begin to see layoffs,” he said.
All-in-all, it’s a balancing act.
If the Fed were to delay rate cuts or reduce rates too slowly, it risks throwing the economy into a recession. But if it reduces rates too quickly, it may re-heat the economy and stoke inflation.
We don’t believe a 25- or 50-bp rate cut will matter much a year from now. But today, it’s big news.
Investor reaction
Profit growth, moderating inflation, stable/falling interest rates, and modest economic growth have traditionally been strong tailwinds for equities.
During September, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index reached record highs. Although the Fed initially misjudged the emergence of inflation, it has regained some credibility as inflation has slowed without a recession.
Accordingly, market performance this year is welcome.
Source: MSCI.com, Bloomberg, MarketWatch
MTD returns: August 30, 2024–September 30, 2024
YTD returns: December 29, 2023–September 30, 2024
**in US dollars
But robust market performance can sometimes lead to a euphoria that can encourage too much risk-taking. We caution against that.
Overweighting stocks may support returns, but unexpected volatility from any number of sources can spark shorter-term declines that go beyond one’s comfort level.
This is the time to look at portfolios and discuss rebalancing and why. I will be reaching out to have this conversation now and in of course after election. In the mean time October is Cybersecurity Awareness Month. Below are some things you can do to keep yourself and you loved ones a little safer.
Cybersecurity Awareness Month
It’s Saturday afternoon, and you are watching a movie at home or running errands, and your phone vibrates.
You take a peek and see a text from a phone number and area code you don’t recognize. “Hey Jackson, when are you coming to my house to fix my a/c? It’s hot in this place.”
Or the message may read, “Let’s get together tomorrow for a cup of coffee.”
There are no typos. It seems friendly, but you don’t know the person or simply assume the sender mistakenly entered your phone number.
The temptation may be to kindly inform the person that he/she has the wrong number. Or you sheepishly reply and ask if this is someone you know. Both responses seem harmless, right?
Wrong!
Losses rise
Every day, the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) receives thousands of complaints reporting a wide array of scams, many of them targeting the elderly.
In 2023, the FBI’s Elder Fraud report stated that losses reported to the IC3 by those over the age of 60 topped $3.4 billion, an 11% increase in reported losses from 2022. The average dollar loss was $33,915.
There was also a 14% rise in complaints filed with the IC3 by elderly victims. But this is only the tip of the iceberg, as many simply are too embarrassed to report or don’t believe they will ever see their money again.
Let’s continue with our real-life example
According to consumer advice from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), it’s not rude to ignore “Hi, how are you?” text messages from strangers.
Let me explain. In the past, it wasn’t uncommon to occasionally receive a call from someone who misdialed. A quick “You must have the wrong number,” followed by, “Oh, I’m sorry,” ended the call. The exchange lasted less than 30 seconds.
Today, a scammer is sending the message, hoping you’ll answer and take the bait.
According to the FTC, scammers will probably apologize and then engage you in friendly and playful banter to keep the conversation going because they want to gain your trust.
Once they have your trust, they’ll offer advice on investing in cryptocurrency or some other investment…for a fee. But it’s a scam. If you take the bait, it will turn into a costly lesson.
In other instances, scammers may send a photo of “themselves” from a unique location. Be careful. The photo contains malware.
Download the picture, and hackers can gain access to your phone, keystrokes (including passwords), financial information, and more.
Even if you quickly break off the conversation, scammers now know they have a live number and are likely to ramp up fraudulent and annoying attacks.
If you see such a message, it’s best not to open it. Just hit “block and report SPAM.”
Never call an unknown number back, even if it looks like a local or U.S. phone number. In what’s called the one-ring phone scam, fraudsters use international numbers that look like American numbers to trick you into returning the call. They’ll do their best to keep you on the line, leaving you with huge charges.
Nowadays, it may be best not to answer calls from numbers you don’t recognize. If it’s important, they will leave a voicemail.
Impersonation
Have you ever received a text that claims to be from Netflix or PayPal? Most of us have.
The message alleges something is wrong with the account, and you must click on a link to re-establish service. But do you notice the link is simply a long string of nonsensical characters? It’s a message designed to defraud you.
Messages claiming to be from FedEx or UPS inform you that a package is being held at a warehouse because they don’t have your address. Again, scammers want you to click on a nefarious link that will only lead to heartache.
Meanwhile, the grandparent scam tugs at your heartstrings, which is the scammer's goal. You may receive a phone call from a scammer posing as the victim’s grandchild, purportedly in jail. Money is needed immediately.
Even if scammers insist you keep it a secret, the FBI recommends that you first verify the story with a family member.
The romance scam
Scammers prey on those of any age, including the elderly. According to the FBI, a criminal uses a fake online identity to gain a victim’s affection and trust. The scammer then uses the illusion of a romantic relationship to manipulate and steal from the victim.
Scammers may discuss meeting in person, but that won’t happen. Eventually, when you are most vulnerable, they will ask for money. At its worst, victims have willingly given hundreds of thousands of dollars to these criminals.
The bottom line: Never send money to anyone you’ve communicated with online or by phone.
How to recognize phishing
According to the FTC, scammers use emails or text messages to steal your passwords, account numbers, and Social Security number. Scammers launch billions of phishing attacks every day—and they’re successful more often than you think.
Otherwise, they wouldn’t take the time if such activities weren’t profitable.
Despite the official appearance, here are signs that can help you spot fraudulent messages.
- The email has a generic greeting. It doesn’t address you by name.
- It’s from an unknown email address that doesn’t reflect the company’s name.
- The email says your account is on hold due to a billing problem.
- The email requires that you click on a link to update your payment details.
Be careful! With the advent of AI (artificial intelligence), emails may appear legit and devoid of typos and misspelled words, which are obvious signs of a scam.
If in doubt, call the company. But don’t use a number provided in the email. Be sure to find a statement or obtain the phone number directly from the company’s website.
Play defense
Let’s explore several FTC recommendations that will help you avoid being victimized.
- Protect your computer and phone using security software that automatically updates.
- Protect your accounts using multi-factor authentication, which requires additional credentials to access your account. These can fall into three categories:
- A passcode, a PIN, or the answer to a security question.
- A one-time verification passcode you get by text, email, or from an authenticator app.
- A scan of your fingerprint, your retina, or your face.
Multi-factor authentication makes it harder for scammers to log in to your accounts if they obtain your username and password.
If you receive a phone call from someone asking for the PIN or passcode, HANG UP! No one from your bank, financial institution, or legitimate company will EVER call you and ask for this information.
After hanging up, immediately change your password and user ID and speak to someone at that company so you may report your encounter.
- Protect the data on your phone and computer by saving data to an external hard drive or in the cloud.
- Limit the amount of personal information on social media. It’s best not to share family and personal information. Major platforms, including Facebook, have hundreds of millions of users. Any one of them in the U.S. or overseas can follow and target you.
- Don’t let your guard down and use common sense.
What if…
We’re human. We make mistakes. What if you slip up and provide the requested information?
- Change your password and always use strong passwords. Better yet, use a unique password for each account.
- Check your financial statements and call your financial institution.
- If you have not frozen your credit report with the three credit bureaus, do so now. What is a credit freeze? A credit freeze prevents creditors from accessing your credit report, preventing a scammer from taking out a loan or credit card in your name.
Equifax: https://www.equifax.com/personal/credit-report-services/credit-freeze
Experian: https://www.experian.com/freeze/center.html
TransUnion: https://www.transunion.com/credit-freeze
It’s easy to do, and you may temporarily lift a credit freeze when applying for credit.
Final thoughts
We want you to stay safe online.
Much of what we’ve discussed may sound like common sense, and it is. But in the moment that we least expect it, mistakes can occur.
Hackers are becoming increasingly sophisticated, but knowledge and common sense are a strong defense. Keep your security software updated and stay alert; you’ll greatly reduce the odds of being victimized.
If you have questions, we’d be happy to provide additional resources.
I trust you have found this review to be informative. If you have any questions or wish to discuss other matters, please don’t hesitate to contact me or any team member.
As always, thank you for choosing us as your financial advisor. We are honored and humbled by your trust.
Sincerely,
Cheryl L. Myler, CRPC
Vice President – Wealth Management
Content prepared by Horsesmouth for use by Financial Advisors'.
Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Investable Market Index (IMI) captures large, mid and small cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries (excluding the United States) and 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries*. With 6,211 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the global equity opportunity set outside the US. The MSCI Emerging Markets is designed to measure equity market performance in 25 emerging market indices. The index's three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market.
