February Letter to Clients

I trust everyone had a wonderful holiday season. Whether you reached your personal goals last year or faced challenges, a new year brings new opportunities and a fresh start.

Let’s jump right into this month’s topic. The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019, popularly known as the SECURE Act, was signed into law in late 2019.

Now called SECURE Act 1.0, it included provisions that raised the requirement for mandatory distributions from retirement accounts and increased access to retirement accounts.

But it didn’t take long for Congress to enhance the landmark bill that was enacted barely three years ago.

Tucked inside a just-passed 4,155-page, $1.7 trillion spending bill are plenty of goodies, including another overhaul of the nation’s retirement laws.

[[https://images.thinkadvisor.com/contrib/content/uploads/documents/415/479719/GA_SECURE-2.0-Act-of-2022_Section-by-Section-Summary-FINAL.pdf Dubbed SECURE Act 2.0]], the bill enjoys widespread bipartisan support and builds on SECURE Act 1.0 by strengthening the financial safety net by encouraging Americans to save for retirement.

9 key takeaways on SECURE Act 2.0

1. Changing the age of the required minimum distributions. Three years ago, 1.0 increased the age for taking the required minimum distribution, or RMD, to 72 years from 70½. If you turn 72 this year, the age required for taking your RMD rises to 73 with 2.0.

If you turned 72 in 2022, you’ll remain on the prior schedule.

If you turn 72 in 2023, you may delay your RMD until 2024, when you turn 73. Or you may push back your first RMD to April 1, 2025. Just be aware that you will be required to take two RMDs in 2025, one no later than April 1 and the second no later than December 31.

Starting in 2033, the age for the RMD will rise to 75.

Employees enrolled in a Roth 401(k) won’t be required to take RMDs from their Roth 401(k). That begins in 2024.

In our view, the SECURE Act 1.0 and 2.0 updates were long overdue. The new rules recognize that Americans are living and working longer.

2. RMD penalty relief. Beginning this year, the penalty for missing an RMD is reduced to 25% from 50%. And 2.0 goes one step further. If the RMD that was missed is taken in a timely manner and the IRA account holder files an updated tax return, the penalty is reduced to 10%.

But let’s be clear, while the penalty has been reduced, you’ll still pay a penalty for missing your RMD.

3. A shot in the arm for employer-sponsored plans. Too many Americans do not have access to employer plans or simply don’t participate.

Starting in 2025, companies that set up new 401(k) or 403(b) plans will be required to automatically enroll employees at a rate between 3% and 10% of their salary.

The new legislation also allows for automatic portability, which will encourage folks in low-balance plans to transfer their retirement account to a new employer-sponsored account rather than cash out.

In order to encourage employees to sign up, employers may offer gift cards or small cash payments. Think of it as a signing bonus.

Employees may opt out of the employer-sponsored plan.

4. Increased catchup provisions. In 2025, 2.0 increases the catch-up provision for those between 60 and 63 from $6,500 in 2022 ($7,500 in 2023 if 50 or older) to $10,000, (the greater of $10,000 or 50% more than the regular catch-up amount). The amount is indexed to inflation.

Catch-up dollars are required to be made into a Roth IRA unless your wages are under $145,000.

5. Charitable contributions. Starting in 2023, 2.0 allows a one-time, $50,000 distribution to charities through charitable gift annuities, charitable remainder unitrusts, and charitable remainder annuity trusts. One must be 70½ or older to take advantage of this provision.

The $50,000 limit counts toward the year’s RMD.

It also indexes an annual IRA charitable distribution limit of $100,000, known as a qualified charitable distribution, or QCD, beginning in 2023.

6. Back-door student loan relief. Starting next year, employers are allowed to match student loan payments made by their employees. The employer’s match must be directed into a retirement account, but it is an added incentive to sock away funds for retirement.

Additional provisions

7. Disaster relief. You may withdraw up to $22,000 penalty-free from an IRA or an employer-sponsored plan for federally declared disasters. Withdrawals can be repaid to the retirement account.
8. Help for survivors. Victims of abuse may need funds for various reasons, including cash to extricate themselves from a difficult situation. 2.0 allows a victim of domestic violence to withdraw the lesser of 50% of an account or $10,000 penalty-free.
9. Rollover of 529 plans. Starting in 2024 and subject to annual Roth contribution limits, assets in a 529 plan can be rolled into a Roth IRA, with a maximum lifetime limit of $35,000. The rollover must be in the name of the plan’s beneficiary. The 529 plan must be at least 15 years old.

In the past, families may have hesitated in fully funding 529s amid fears the plan could wind up being overfunded and withdrawals would be subject to a penalty. Though there is a $35,000 cap, the provision helps alleviate some of these concerns.

A cautious, upbeat start to 2023

There was no shortage of gloom as the new year began. The Federal Reserve was signaling higher interest rates, and its aggressive campaign, started last year, to rein in inflation has been threatening to throw the economy into a profit-killing recession.

While investor sentiment is far from euphoric right now, 2023 is off to a strong start. What’s behind the move?

Table 1: Key Index Returns

Source: Wall Street Journal, MSCI.com, Bloomberg
MTD/YTD returns: December 30, 2022-January 31, 2023
**in US dollars

Last year, the Fed hiked its key lending rate, the fed funds rate, by 75 basis points (bp, 1 bp – 0.01%) in four consecutive moves.

Mix in a 50 bp increase in December and 25 bp increase back in March, and we experienced the most aggressive tightening cycle in over 40 years—1,000 bp in 6 months (St. Louis Federal Reserve) at the end of 1980. Ronald Reagan had not yet been inaugurated.

While the Federal Reserve is not yet signaling a halt to rate hikes and commentary suggests it could hold rates at a high plateau this year (what analysts have been calling ‘higher for longer’), the pace of rate increases is set to slow from last year’s nearly unprecedented level.

But are investors front-running the Fed? Or are they too optimistic about rates? Fed officials pushed back aggressively last year on a 2022 pivot.

Today, investors believe we may see at least one rate cut by the end of the year. Previously, that had not been in the Fed’s game plan, but Fed Chief Powell seemed less wedded to pushing rates above 5% at the February 1 press conference.

While Powell isn’t declaring victory on inflation and he isn’t ready to hint at a turnaround, he was more open to the recent moderation in inflation. The initial reaction was positive.

Looking ahead, a significant rise in the jobless rate would probably force the Fed to cut rates, but a drop in corporate profits could negate any benefits from falling rates.

How the Fed responds will be heavily influenced by how the economic outlook unfolds.

An opaque crystal ball

From 1970 through 2021, the January return on the S&P 500 Index exceeded 5% 10 times (St. Louis Federal Reserve data). Excluding reinvested dividends, the S&P 500 finished the year higher nine times. The 90% ‘win ratio’ beats the average since 1970 of 74%.

During the 10 years when January advanced by 5% or more, the S&P 500 averaged a return of 21.5%. Its best annual return was 31.6% in 1975, which followed the difficult 1973-74 bear market. Its only loss was 6.2% in 2018.

There are those who attempt to glean insights from expected market returns based on where we are in a political cycle. Such exercises are interesting, but let’s stress that each economic cycle has its own peculiarities that may override these barometers.

I trust you’ve found this review to be educational and helpful.

If you have any questions or would like to discuss any matters, please feel free to give me or any of my team members a call.

As always, I’m honored and humbled that you have given me the opportunity to serve as your financial advisor.

Cheryl L. Myler, CRPC
Vice President-Wealth Management

Content prepared by Horsesmouth for use by Financial Advisors'. Raymond James is not affiliated with Horsesmouth.

Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Investable Market Index (IMI) captures large, mid and small cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries (excluding the United States) and 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries*. With 6,211 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the global equity opportunity set outside the US. The MSCI Emerging Markets is designed to measure equity market performance in 25 emerging market indices. The index's three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.