Happy New Year. Out with the old, in with the new? It depends. Featured in the photo above is a 1946 Buick 40 Special … quite a car in its day. But I doubt you’ll spot one cruising along today’s Dallas North Tollway. And yet, a year from now we will likely embark on a four-year road trip with a president of similar vintage. Of the two models on offer, there are concerns about wiring in one, braking and steering in the other. Vintage cars have a certain charm, but when taking a ride, safety and reliability are top of mind. Better fasten your seatbelts.
Ever since the Great Financial Crisis of ’08, the political candle has burned brightly on both ends, and the folks in between are feeling the heat. This year, both social and old-time media will be lighting things up with news alerts on ‘Sleepy Joe’ and ‘Mussolini 2.0’. As of now, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are the presumptive candidates in this year’s presidential election. Normally, men of their age would be satisfied playing with golf clubs and grandkids. Normally, men of their wealth would enjoy playing Scrooge McDuck with their millions. And yet, each man is battling to reprise his role as God on Earth. Shakespeare’s King Lear is the tale of an aged king, vanity, power, and misfortune. Time will tell if our 2025-2028 story is … to be, or not to be … a comedy, a tragedy, or just more history.
WHADDABOUT YOUR MONEY?
What are the political issues that affect investors? Are they today’s social media distractions over bathrooms, books, and beer ads? I suspect markets will keep their focus on the big picture and the long run. Over the past 234 years, our Hamilton-Madison creation has grown and prospered nicely. On the world stage, America is the biggest and the best in many categories, and your personal wealth benefits accordingly. We have the broadest and deepest capital markets. Our stock market currently represents sixty percent of the global market valuation. Our dollar is the global reserve currency. Our per-capita GDP is a third greater than that of the industrious Germans*. And on and on. And what are the ingredients that make America great? Here’s the recipe:
Classical conservatism—as opposed to culture-war conservatism—favors keeping what works, and making changes only with careful deliberation. If your money could vote, I suspect it would look beyond the irritations of the day and pick whoever would preserve, protect, and defend everything listed above. Out with the old? In this case, let’s hope not.
*World Bank National Accounts data files, 2022.
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