I once had the opportunity to make the nightly news … as in ABC, CBS, NBC. During my junior year in college, three fraternity brothers and I decided to fly a Piper Cherokee from Champaign, Illinois to Ft. Lauderdale for spring break. Our pilot and fellow Delt, Jeff Frame, had all the flying experience a 21-year-old could possess. And the price was right. I was designated co-pilot—i.e., ballast in charge of a two-inch thick flight book, which I quietly assumed contained instructions on how to fly a plane. As the engine droned on, ten hours turned into ten plus, and day faded to night. By the time we reached Daytona Beach, a dense fog had turned their airport into a glowing green cloud—and … the fuel-gauge needle was sitting on E. I will never forget the terse back-and-forth between Jeff and the control tower, laser-focused on “Cherokee 55151”. We were quickly diverted to Ormond Beach, and the wee bit of avgas that remained was just enough for us to land safely—just as the fog rolled into that airport. Days later, we celebrated the ‘luck o’ the Irish’ (my middle name is Collins) with green beers on St. Paddy’s Day, 1977.
“There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” - E. Hamilton Lee
Speaking of luck and outcomes, the investment community nowadays is also focused on landings: hard (recession), soft (no recession), no landing - version one (strong economy, moderating inflation), and no landing - version two (strong economy, rising inflation). Each scenario has major implications for stocks, bonds, and cash. With the Fed’s promise to guide inflation back down to 2%, and prices sticky at higher altitudes, turbulence can be expected. Call me if you wish to discuss.
The impact of luck in people’s lives is not always recognized. Bill Gates and Paul Allen became billionaires as co-founders of Microsoft. In 1968, Gates and Allen had the good fortune to attend one of the only schools in the world that had access to a computer, which provided them with the opportunity to learn computer programming. But most people have never heard of Kent Evans, Gates’ best friend and fellow computer prodigy. Gates claims that Evans was the brightest student in their class. But while Gates, Allen, and Evans had the one-in-a-million good luck to be friends and classmates at Lakeside School, Evans had the one-in-a-million bad luck to die in a mountaineering accident at age 17.
“Luck and risk are siblings. They are both the reality that every outcome in life is guided by forces other than individual effort. The world is too complex to allow 100% of your actions to dictate 100% of your outcomes. Not all success is due to hard work, and not all poverty is due to laziness. Keep this in mind when judging people, including yourself. Nothing is as good or as bad as it seems.” – Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money
A tip o’ the hat to Kyle Johnson, Lord of the Realm (North Addison Park) for this copy of the Irish Blessing. On the 17th, let’s raise a glass to good luck, and pray for more to come. Happy St. Patrick’s Day.
Any opinions are those of James Aldendifer and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of the strategy selected.
