October was the eighth month in the ancient Roman calendar. Its name comes from octo, the Latin word for eight - this month’s theme.
As a young boy, I would often grab the Magic 8 Ball off my dresser, turn it over, and look for the triangle to float up and answer my all-important questions. Will Mary Edwards let me kiss her after school? Will the Packers beat the Bears on Sunday? The more serious questions of the day were vetted and provided by gatekeepers: newspapers, magazines, and the Big 3 Networks. Walter Cronkite at CBS News was known as ‘the most trusted man in America’.
Today, we have a proliferation of ‘8 Balls’ providing answers: 1,000+ TV channels, websites, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Snapchat, Instagram, Siri, podcasts, blogs, cellphone apps, talk radio, etc. There’s money to be made in this melee, and the aforementioned need to attract ears and eyeballs. And since we humans are wired to be on the lookout for threats and potential mates, creating fear and featuring attractive people helps bring in the bucks.
Television – The most-watched news networks are most-watched because they have cleverly defined and targeted their markets. Old Uncle Walter has been replaced with perky Barbies and Kens feeding red meat to hungry viewers. It’s a business model. And when the beautiful people on your team are beating up the folks you don’t like, it really releases the endorphins. Just like watching the Dallas Cowboys trounce a divisional rival while the cheerleaders prance around. One wonders … how could Barbie, Ken, and their bosses not relish the money, power, and status that come with the job? Does feeding the mega-mansions and Gulfstream G200s take priority over the health and welfare of the republic?
The Internet - TV on steroids, usually within arm’s reach, now even attached to arms themselves. Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Facebook are the world’s biggest and most profitable companies, and the superstars in the 8-Ball constellation. Platforms and algorithms have been created to grab people by their curiosities and drag them down the rabbit hole. Bret Stephens of The New York Times recently wrote:
… we created algorithms and digital platforms that scrambled our brains. The new technologies have shortened our attention spans, heightened our anxieties, made us more prone to depression and more in need of outside validation and left us less capable of patient reflection and also less interested in seeking out different points of view.
… Twitter: The medium is perfect for people who think in spasms, speak in grunts, emote with insults and salute with hashtags.
Radio - Nowadays, when you’re not looking at a screen, you’re often looking through a windshield. Listening to self-serving outrage monkeys is an option. Several years ago, during a trip back from Breckenridge, TX, I happened to tune into a bloviating gasbag berating a young woman over women’s issues. Half the roll of Tums purchased at a roadside gas station still sits in my glove box. I recommend the classical music station.
An Observation – Just like Barbie and Ken, politicians relish the money, power, and status that come with the job. To remain in office, however, they must use selected 8 Balls to keep their more excitable constituents satisfied. Being primaried is a big concern. On the flip side, 8 Balls have also enabled goofballs to make the team and get the perks. But no matter who’s in or who’s out, blaming and complaining is the strategy. Culture wars and sound bites are in; civil discourse and considered deliberation on complex policy matters is … zzzzzzzzzz. People are busy, short on time, and forget what you say … but they do remember how you make them feel.
A Concern - While today’s 8 Balls are incredibly useful, they have also been used to misinform and manipulate people, have made teenage girls despondent, ruined relationships, increased dysfunction in government, divided our country, and put people on edge. Ring doorbells and Glock 17s have flown off the shelves.
A BIG CONCERN: 8 Balls can contribute to horrifying outcomes. In 1933, the 5’5” club-footed Übermensch Joseph Goebbels used an early version of Twitter to reach the masses and influence public opinion in Germany. Behold-the volksempfänger:
This little 8 Ball was used to tell Germans that ‘you have a problem’ and ‘only we can solve your problem’. Many bought into the story, proudly waved little red flags and cheered the new team that promised to make Germany great for a thousand years. Twelve years on, those Germans still alive were crawling out of the rubble (here) and burning their little red flags. How did this happen? On the recent anniversary of 9/11, Kevin D. Williamson of National Review wrote:
Nazism did not arise in some unlettered desert - it was the product of Europe’s most intellectually accomplished nation. When we encounter people with radically different values from our own, we sometimes think of them as somehow less than human, as closer to animals than to us.
On a related note, after sixteen years the leader of the free world is stepping down. Angela Merkel, the conservative German Chancellor (quantum chemist, not a Barbie) is leaving her country in better condition than when she started (unlike Chancellor #24). In democracies, as in business, competent leaders with mature dispositions usually last longer than self-centered autocrats.
Why the venting? Because I care. A lot. I’m the product of my formative years spent in Lincoln, Illinois, a Leave It to Beaver town situated on the fruited plain, between the shining seas. The town was named in honor of and christened by our 16th President, Abraham Lincoln. Honest Abe famously said, “A house divided against itself, cannot stand.” Lincoln preserved the Union. I hope we can too. I have grandsons that will someday want to kiss a girl … and more.
Copyright © 2021 - Any opinions are those of James Aldendifer and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of the strategy selected. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize, or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users and/or members.
