Thomas Scanlon
CPA, CFP®
Financial Advisor

360 East Center Street
Manchester, CT 06040
Phone: 860-645-1515
Fax: 860-643-4858
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Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut

“Why It’s a Great Time to Be an Investor”
July 7, 2008

Memo to investors:

“This is what you get paid for. Volatility. Stomach-churning drops. Watching your paper wealth evaporate. Stock market profits aren’t free. Garbage collectors (at least, in non-union towns) know they have to turn up in the morning and pick up people’s trash in order to get paid. Piano teachers know they have to teach piano to pay the rent. Shop keepers have to tend to a shop. Only investors in the stock market expect to be like the lilies of the field. They toil not, neither do they spin. Could Wall Street just send us the checks every month please? The reality is that investors have to earn their money, through brains and nerves. The brains can mean doing smart things – like buying Apple when it started to turn around. More often, they simply are doing dumb things, like buying Pets.com. The nerves mean not panicking or getting swayed by fear, at the bottom, or greed, at the top.”

. . . The Wall Street Journal Online

“The nerves mean not panicking or getting swayed by fear, at the bottom, or greed, at the top;” indeed, this is why another long-embraced mantra hangs on the wall of our office stating, “The stock market is fear, hope, and greed, only loosely connected to the business cycle!” To be sure, this is the only business where when prices are LOW they let stocks go and when prices are HIGH they want to buy. And that, ladies and gentlemen, seemed to be the mood on the Street of Dreams last week as participants “sold” at what we think feels more like the end of the envisioned selling-stampede rather than the beginning of a another new “leg” to the downside. Accordingly, we scribed a special strategy alert last Wednesday (7/2/08), one of only four such alerts we have penned over the past 10 years. It read:

“In yesterday’s verbal strategy comments we stated, ‘These will be the last strategy comments of the week.’ But, little did we know that yesterday, and maybe today (last Tuesday/Wednesday), would mark the potential turning point for the equity markets, at least on a short-term basis. Consequently, we thought we would share with you what we told institutional accounts all day yesterday. To wit, it is day 30 in the ‘selling stampede’ (today is day 31) and I can count on one hand when such skeins have lasted for more than 30 sessions. Moreover, our proprietary oversold indicator is more oversold than it has been in a few years. Additionally, the set-up looks right with EVERYBODY gone for the holiday-shortened week. The clincher was that we told our early morning callers the ideal daily pattern would be a sharply lower opening followed by a rally attempt, which fails, leading to a lower low with the equity markets then firming into the closing bell. And, that is exactly what we got! We further opined, ‘We don’t know if it will be Tuesday or Wednesday, so we recommend buying some trading positions today and tomorrow with close trailing stop-loss points to minimize the risk’.”

“At such a potential short-term downside inflection point, what you need to buy are those companies/indices with the best relative strength characteristics and those with the worst relative strength characteristics. Since we already own those with the best characteristics (energy, agriculture, materials, water, etc.), we concentrated on those with the worst characteristics. Consequently, our vehicles of choice were financials and real estate. The exchange-traded funds we are using are: ProShare Ultra Financials (UYG/$19.54); Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF/$19.94); ProShare Ultra Real Estate (URE/$26.66); SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB/$15.98); and ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO/$59.82).”

“The call for today: Never say never; never say always; always reevaluate; and, never give up! Indeed, if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again!”

Consistent with our strategy of NEVER buying an entire position all at once, we told accounts to buy a one-third trading tranche last Tuesday, another one-third tranche on Wednesday, and complete the final one-third tranche on Thursday (before the long weekend) if the equity markets took another tumble. Our strategy was based on the belief that Wall Street was, “Moving the headstones around, but not moving the graves!” Manifestly, over the past few weeks every time the “bears” have wanted to drive stocks lower they have trotted out rumors that Israel was going to bomb Iran and the Hormuz Straits would subsequently be closed. The result has been a surge in crude oil prices with an attendant stock swoon. To us, this constantly repeated rumor is getting pretty “worn.” Still, given last week’s holiday-shortened, limited audience environment, the “sellers” had a vacuum in which to sell (no buyers) and the results speak for themselves.

Our stance was/is that if there were no geopolitical events over the holiday weekend, participants might just return in “buy ‘em mode” with an upside “buying vacuum.” Plainly, these thoughts have been reflected in our verbal comments where we suggested what we are experiencing is a “raindrop bottom” whereby if you bought scaled “in” trading positions last week you might get “hit” by a few raindrops, but were unlikely to get very wet. So far that stance has been generally correct, which brings us to this week.

For us, this week represents a critical week. Today is day 33 in the selling-stampede, and unless we are in “crash mode,” our belief is that we are making a “raindrop bottom” on a trading basis. Yet, the situation is far from a “lead pipe cinch,” for as the Lowry’s organization noted in Friday’s missive:

“Major market trends in the stock market are largely reflections of the collective emotions of hope, fear or greed expressed by millions of active investors. . . . Last Friday, the DJIA finally fell 20% from its high, meaning the minimum requirement of an ‘official’ bear market. . . . This looked to a gaggle of analysts as convincing evidence that the bear market was over just one day after it officially began. . . . (But), several factors make it unlikely that a major market low will be formed in the near future.”

Unfortunately, we agree with the good folks at Lowry’s about the longer-term scheme of things. In fact, we are one of the few people that wrote about the Dow Theory “sell signal” registered in November 2007, which is why we entered 2008 in a cautious mode with oversized holdings of cash. Yet, we think a tradable “low” is at hand and are positioning accounts accordingly. If we are wrong, we will be stopped-out consistent with another one of our mantras, “Better to lose face and save skin!”

As for the investing side of portfolios, we continue to embrace the dividend yield theme, and our stock recommendations that play to it, so often mentioned in these reports. We also urge you to read the addendum attached to this report. Said addendum reprises some verbal comments made by our fundamental analysts over the past few weeks. We continue to invest accordingly.

The call for this week: We began this week’s report with a quote from The Wall Street Journal that read, “The nerves mean not panicking or getting swayed by fear, at the bottom, or greed, at the top.” Last November we wrote about the Dow Theory “sell signal” when prices were high yet participants wanted to “buy.” Now we are writing about the Dow Theory downside non-confirmation and prices are low yet participants want to let stocks “go” (read: sell stocks). Meanwhile, it is session 33 in the “selling stampede,” our proprietary oversold indicator is more oversold than it was at the March 2003 “low” (we were bullish there as well), the spread between Lowry’s Buying Power Index (demand) and Lowry’s Selling Pressure Index (supply) is the widest in the 75-year history of Lowry’s (indicating that stocks are severely oversold), corporate insiders’ selling is at rock-bottom lows, and we are seeing numerous indices not confirming the D-J Industrial’s “downside dive.” It’s not that we are turning aggressively bullish, but we think that unless the markets are in “crash mode” it is time to consider a corrective stock market rally as B.J Thomas warms up in the wings with the song “Raindrops.”

Addendum:

Paul Puryear, Director of Real Estate Research
We look for housing prices to continue to fall. In 18 countries over the past 40 years the average housing market decline has been around five years long, some have averaged seven years. Currently, the U.S. is in year three of the current cycle. Though the affordability index has improved and is back up to 100; only because of declining prices. The worst data point, at this time, is the level of inventory. There are currently about four million houses for sale in the U.S. and about 1.5 million for rent. Inventories are continuing to build. Another negative in housing is the mortgage default rates. In the U.S. there are about 55 million mortgages and of these approximately 6.5 million are currently delinquent. Of the 6.5 million that are delinquent, about 2.5 million are in foreclosure. The subprime delinquencies have stabilized for now, but overall all loan categories are seeing increases in delinquencies.

On the REIT front, we still like defensive names. We favor commercial over residential REITs that tend to focus more on growth. Our favorites at this time are Corporate Office Properties Trust (OFC/$33.63/Outperform), Essex Property Trust (ESS/$107.61/Outperform), Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM/$34.06/Outperform), Cogdell Spencer, Inc. (CSA/$16.28/Outperform), Digital Realty Trust (DLR/$40.91/Outperform), and Washington REIT (WRE/$29.62/Outperform). These are the six names on the REIT Priority List.

Marshall Adkins, Director of Energy Research
The Energy sector is still in a secular bull market. We are bearish on the natural gas complex. We believe speculators are correct on the current price of oil and analysts that have set lower target prices on crude oil are incorrect. Oil prices have been increasing since 2005 when OPEC decreased production by two million barrels per day. Most countries have been unable to make up this production shortfall. China only consumes what the U.S. consumed in 1900, based on per capita data. In contrast, gas supply has been surging recently. In addition to production shortfalls, the weakness in the U.S. Dollar has quintupled the price of crude oil for the U.S. On the other hand, Europe has seen a doubling of oil prices. This shows the disparities. Most likely, drilling will continue to increase since shale is so cost competitive. For example, Barnett Shale is five to eight times more productive than average. In addition, electric consumption in the U.S. is up only 1% over the last year. This will most likely lead to record storage by August of 2008. We are convinced that within six to nine months gas prices will take a significant downturn. Five out of seven years in the 1970s oil prices went up as the U.S. dollar went up. Therefore, there is really no argument that a strong dollar will lead to lower oil prices. Taking a look at price manipulation, the top 10 oil companies in the world own less than 4% of the world’s supply. We ask the question, “How are they manipulating it?” They’re not. Our favorite area is Haynesville, because the costs of extraction are so low and it will continue to be drilled. Deepwater is also a great area right now - we favor Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc (HLX/$37.71/Strong Buy), which we believe is a turnaround story. We also like National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV/$85.12/Strong Buy).

Bill Fisher, Industrial and Logistics Services Analyst
Waste Connections (WCN/$31.12/Strong Buy) has increased prices by about 4% and these price increases seem to be sticking. At this time, Waste Connections is the best name in the category. Republic Services (RSG/$29.15/Strong Buy) was the best name for a period of time. We believe that money in RSG will most likely shift to WCN. 55% of Waste Connections’ business is monopolized. Fuel expenses are hurting Waste Connections by about a nickel per share, but the company should be able to get this back with the increased prices. At this time, Waste Connections has about $500 million on its books for acquisitions. Many family-owned waste companies are in the market to sell out of fear that an election win for Obama may lead to an increase in the capital gains tax rates. In addition, if the Republic Services Group and the Allied Waste (AW/$12.44/Outperform) deal goes through, the justice department should push for divestiture. Waste Connections would be in a position to buy up some of the divested businesses.

Fuel surcharges on international shipments have hurt UPS (UPS/$59.47/Outperform). The increase in prices for premium air shipping has caused consumes to “trade down” in favor of lower cost ground shipping. Though UPS still has a 30% return on equity (ROE). With today’s (6/23/2008) hit in the stock price, UPS is trading at the same price it was approximately nine years ago. DHL is losing about $1 billion per quarter in the U.S. UPS has recently cut a deal with DHL.

John Ransom, Director of Healthcare Research
In the healthcare area there is a lot of uncertainty due to the upcoming presidential election. Obama would be disastrous for managed care, Medicare providers, and pharmaceutical names. Stocks in these categories should be doing well in this economic environment since they are defensive, but fear of Obama winning the presidential election has hurt their performance. For the pharmaceutical names, bringing new drugs to market is no longer an easy task. Money is going back into genetic treatments. Another factor is the weaker economy, which should hurt healthcare companies. You need to look at the balance sheet, rising volumes, which is rare, a reasonable valuation, and earnings upside. There are three names that we like. McKesson (MCK/$54.59/Strong Buy)) has 15% sales growth and 25% is healthcare IT. Compare this to Cerner Corporation (CERN/$44.22/Outperform). MCK is cheap with a tremendous amount of growth. We like this stock a lot. Amedisys (AMED/$49.03/Strong Buy) is another good choice. We estimate that Amedisys could earn approximately $4 per share in 2009. In addition, home healthcare is booming. Everyone saves money with home healthcare.

“If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again!”
July 2, 2008

In yesterday’s verbal strategy comments we stated, “These will be the last strategy comments of the week.” But little did we know that yesterday, and maybe today, would mark the potential turning point for the equity markets, at least on a short-term basis. Consequently, we thought we would share with you what we told institutional accounts all day yesterday. To wit, it is day 30 in the “selling stampede” (today is day 31) and I can count on one hand when such skeins have lasted for more than 30 sessions. Moreover, our proprietary oversold indicator is more oversold than it has been in a few years. Additionally, the set-up looks right with EVERYBODY gone for the holiday-shortened week. The clincher was that we told our early morning callers the ideal daily pattern would be a sharply lower opening followed by a rally attempt, which fails, leading to a lower low with the equity markets then firming into the closing bell. And, that is exactly what we got! We further opined, “We don’t know if it will be Tuesday or Wednesday, so we recommend buying some trading positions today and tomorrow with close trailing stop-loss points to minimize the risk.”

At such a potential short-term downside inflection point, what you need to buy are those companies/indices with the best relative strength characteristics and those with the worst relative strength characteristics. Since we already own those with the best characteristics (energy, agriculture, materials, water, etc.), we concentrated on those with the worst characteristics. Consequently, our vehicles of choice were financials and real estate. The exchange-traded funds we are using are: ProShare Ultra Financials (UYG/$20.24); Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF/$20.32); ProShare Ultra Real Estate (URE/$28.09); SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB/$16.76); and ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO/$61.90).

The call for today: Never say never; never say always; always reevaluate; and, never give up! Indeed, if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again!

Happy Birthday!
July 1, 2008

Editor’s note: These will be the last strategy comments of the week.

Goodbye and good riddance to this year’s “June Swoon” stock market debacle, which Bloomberg aptly described as, “The worst June since the great depression.” We would note, however, that today is day 30 of the envisioned “selling stampede;” and, that we can count on one hand the selling stampedes that have lasted for more than 30 sessions. Moreover, we reiterate that our proprietary oversold indicator is more oversold than it has been in years. Therefore, unless the equity markets are in “crash mode,” we would NOT be short of stocks right here. Nevertheless, it’s the week of July the Fourth where America celebrates its Declaration of Independence (7/4/1776) from Great Britain, so we thought we would spend the morning considering this country’s national anthem. While most citizens know the first stanza of said anthem, few know the other three. Nor do they know the history leading up to the crafting of its words.

The year was 1812 and the United States was at war with England over freedom of the seas. It was a tumultuous time as Great Britain was struggling with Napoleon’s invasion of Russia. In 1814, however, Napoleon was beaten and England turned its attention to the United States. While many naval battles were fought, the fight eventually centered on the central part of the U.S. as the British attempted to split this country in half. Washington, D.C. was taken and then the Brits “marched” toward Baltimore, where a mere 1,000 patriots manned the cannons at Fort McHenry, whose guns controlled the harbor. If Baltimore was to “fall,” the British would have to take Fort McHenry.

The attack commenced on the morning of September 13, 1814 as 19 British ships began pounding the fort with rockets and mortar shells. After an initial exchange of fire, the Brits withdrew to just outside the range of Forth McHenry’s cannons and continued their bombardment for the next 25 hours. Surprisingly, on board one of the British ships was 35-year-old poet-lawyer Francis Scott Key, who was there arguing for the release of Dr. William Beanes, a prisoner of the British. Even though the captain agreed to the release, the two Americans were required to stay aboard until the attack on Baltimore was over. It was now the night of September 13th as the bombardment continued.

As twilight deepened, Key and Beanes saw the American flag flying over Fort McHenry. And, as reprised by famed author Isaac Asimov:

“Through the night, they heard bombs bursting and saw the red glare of rockets. They knew the fort was resisting and the American flag was still flying. But toward morning the bombardment ceased, and a dread silence fell. Either Fort McHenry had surrendered and the British flag flew above it, or the bombardment had failed and the American flag still flew.

As dawn began to brighten the eastern sky, Key and Beanes stared out at the fort, trying to see which flag flew over it. He and the physician must have asked each other over and over, ‘Can you see the flag?’

After it was all finished, Key wrote a four stanza poem telling the events of the night. Called ‘The Defense of Fort McHenry,’ it was published in newspapers and swept the nation. Someone noted that the words fit an old English tune called, ‘To Anacreon in Heaven’ – a difficult melody with an uncomfortably large vocal range. For obvious reasons, Key’s work became known as ‘The Star Spangled Banner,’ and in 1931 Congress declared it the official anthem of the United States.

Now that you know the story, here are the words. Presumably, the old doctor is speaking. This is what he asks Key:

Oh! say, can you see, by the dawn’s early light,
What so proudly we hailed at the twilight’s last gleaming?
Whose broad stripes and bright stars, through the perilous fight,
O’er the ramparts we watched were so gallantly streaming?
And the rocket’s red glare, the bombs bursting in air,
Gave proof thro’ the night that our flag was still there.
Oh! say, does that star-spangled banner yet wave,
O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave?

(‘Ramparts,’ in case you don’t know, are the protective walls or other elevations that surround a fort.) The first stanza asks a question. The second gives an answer:

On the shore, dimly seen thro’ the mist of the deep
Where the foe’s haughty host in dread silence reposes,
What is that which the breeze, o’er the towering steep.
As it fitfully blows, half conceals, half discloses?
Now it catches the gleam of the morning’s first beam,
In full glory reflected, now shines on the stream
’Tis the star-spangled banner. Oh! long may it wave
O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave!

‘The towering steep’ is again, the ramparts. The bombardment has failed, and the British can do nothing more but sail away, their mission a failure. In the third stanza I feel Key allows himself to gloat over the American triumph. In the aftermath of the bombardment, Key probably was in no mood to act otherwise? During World War I when the British were our staunchest allies, this third stanza was not sung. However, I know it, so here it is:

And where is that band who so vauntingly swore
That the havoc of war and the battle’s confusion
A home and a country should leave us no more?
Their blood has washed out their foul footstep’s pollution.
No refuge could save the hireling and slave
From the terror of flight, or the gloom of the grave,
And the star-spangled banner in triumph doth wave
O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave.

(The fourth stanza, a pious hope for the future, should be sung more slowly than the other three and with even deeper feeling):

Oh! thus be it ever, when freemen shall stand
Between their loved homes and the war’s desolation,
Blest with victory and peace, may the Heaven – rescued land
Praise the Power that hath made and preserved us a nation.
Then conquer we must, for our cause is just,
And this be our motto —“In God is our trust.”
And the star-spangled banner in triumph doth wave
O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave.

I hope you will look at the national anthem with new eyes. Listen to it, the next time you have a chance, with new ears. Pay attention to the words. And don’t let them ever take it away . . . not even one.”

“Truth or Consequences?”
June 30, 2008

“After 28 years at this post, and 22 years before this in money management, I can sum up whatever wisdom I have accumulated this way: The trick is not to be the hottest stock-picker, the winning forecaster, or the developer of the neatest model; such victories are transient. The trick is to survive. Performing that trick requires a strong stomach for being wrong, because we are all going to be wrong more often than we expect. The future is not ours to know. But it helps to know that being wrong is inevitable and normal, not some terrible tragedy, not some awful failing in reasoning, not even bad luck in most instances. Being wrong comes with the franchise of an activity whose outcome depends on an unknown future (maybe the real trick is persuading clients of that inexorable truth). Look around at the long-term survivors at this business and think of the much larger number of colorful characters who were once in the headlines, but who have since disappeared from the scene.”

The aforementioned quote, from the brilliant Peter Bernstein (author, historian, economist, and investor), hangs on the wall of our office, for in this business one is often wrong. But, as Bernstein notes, “Being wrong comes with the franchise of an activity whose outcome depends on an unknown future.” Our redeeming feature is that when we are wrong, we are wrong quickly! Or as stated by William O’Neil, “The majority of unskilled investors stubbornly hold onto their losses when the losses are small and reasonable. They could get out cheaply, but being emotionally involved and human, they keep waiting and hoping until their loss gets much bigger and (that) costs them dearly.”

Indeed, we are always trying to manage the “risks” inherent with investing (or trading), for as Benjamin Graham stated, “The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns. Well-managed portfolios start with this precept.” And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why we often “wait” on an investment until its share price is at a point where if we are wrong, we will be wrong quickly, and the incidence of “loss” will be small and manageable. To be sure, we are always considering the consequences of being wrong. This is when risk management lives up to its real meaning. Again as Peter Bernstein wrote in a recent New York Times article:

“The key word is ‘consequences.’ I learned this lesson many years ago from studying Blaise Pascal, a French mathematical genius in the 17th century who spelled out the laws of probability more clearly than anyone before him. This was a thunderclap of an insight that, for the first time, gave humanity a systematic way of thinking about the future. Pascal was both a gambler and a religious zealot. One day he asked himself how he would handle a bet on whether ‘God is or God is not.’ Reason could not answer. But, he said, we can choose between acting as though God is or acting as though God is not. Suppose we bet that God is, and we lead a life of virtue and abstinence, and then the day of reckoning comes and we discover that there is no God. Well, life was still tolerable even if less fun than we might have liked. Here, the consequences of being wrong would be acceptable to most people. Suppose, however, we bet that God is not, and lead a life of lust and sin, and then it turns out that God is. Now being wrong has put us into big trouble.”

“RISK management, then, should be a process of dealing with the consequences of being wrong. Sometimes, these consequences are minimal — encountering rain after leaving home without an umbrella, for example. But betting the ranch on the assumption that home prices can only go up should tell you the consequences would be much more than minimal if home prices started to fall.”

To these “truth or consequences points,” we turned cautious on the equity markets in early May. Since then we have been waiting for an anticipated price decline that would produce another good risk-adjusted “buy point” like the ones we identified in late January and mid-March. Our downside target zone for the S&P 500 (SPX/1278.38) has been 1320 – 1330. Consequently, when the SPX entered that zone, we began recommending a “scale-in” buying approach of the indices of your choice. As always, we NEVER buy an entire position all at once, preferring to tranche “in” with three or four purchases. To us, the set-up looked about right given that the selling stampede, which began on May 20th, was late in the downside skein (they typically last 17 – 25 sessions before exhausting themselves on the downside), as well as the fact that our proprietary oversold indicator was more oversold than it had been in a few years. And, that strategy looked pretty good until last Thursday’s “Tumble” stopped us out (read: sold) of ALL our long index recommendations with de minimis losses. Indeed, “If you are going to be wrong, be wrong quickly!”

Subsequently, we said in Friday morning’s verbal strategy comments that quarter-end “window dressing” had turned into an “undressing” that caused the D-J Industrial Average (DJIA/11346.51) to break below both its January and March “lows.” We further opined that selling stampedes rarely bottom on a Friday as participants tend to brood about their losses over the weekend and return on Monday in “sell mode.” And that is why the mantra of “Never on a Friday” also hangs on our wall; implying that markets seldom bottom on a Friday! Therefore, we “sit and wait,” attempting to calculate the next move for trading accounts, for as General George S. Patton said, “Take calculated risks. That is quite different from being rash!”

As for the investing side of the portfolio, we continue to like our recent dividend-yielding recommendations of: Alaska Communications (ALSK/$11.82/Outperform); Embarq (EQ/$45.41/Strong Buy); Linn Energy (LINE/$24.54/Outperform); Magellan Midstream Holdings L.P. (MGG/$22.94/Strong Buy); Schering Plough’s convertible preferred “B” shares (SGP+B/$190.97); and Wyeth (WYE/$46.09); for further information on Schering-Plough and Wyeth, please see the research from our research affiliate Credit Suisse.

The call for this week: In this business when you’re wrong you say you’re wrong; at least that’s what the pros do. Clearly, we were wrong in trying to catch a “falling knife” over the past two weeks! And that wrong-footed strategy was punctuated by last Thursday’s Dow Dive, which stopped us out of our “long” index recommendations. Said dive turned out to be another 90% Downside Day (the second since the May highs). That is, Points Lost equaled 93.5% of the sum of Points Gained plus Points Lost: AND, Downside Volume equaled 91.2% of the sum of Upside Volume. Usually following a 90% Downside Day there is an automatic rally lasting two to seven sessions. The fact that the market didn’t rally last Friday is not a good omen, but I’ll say it again, “Never on a Friday!” Interestingly, while the DJIA fell to new yearly lows last week, the D-J Transports are nowhere close to doing the same. Likewise, the NYSE, S&P 400, S&P 600, Russell 2000, NASDAQ, Wilshire 5000, etc. are ALL above their respective March 2008 “lows,” causing one old Wall Street wag to exclaim, “Can you spell downside non-confirmation?!” Meanwhile, today is day 29 in the “selling stampede;” and over the past 38 years, I can count on one hand the number of times when such skeins have lasted more than 30 sessions! Plainly, “concern” has morphed into “fear” as the word “crisis” has begun to echo down the canyons of Wall Street. But remember, the Japanese kanji symbol for “crisis” is made up of two characters. The first character represents DANGER. The second – OPPORTUNITY! We continue to invest accordingly.

kiki – crisis (danger + opportunity)

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