TBT Financial ServicesAn Independent Firm

Weekly Market Snapshot

April 11, 2014

Market Commentary
by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

The economic calendar was relatively thin. The Producer Price Index rose more than expected in March, reflecting a pickup in services (which had fallen in February). Details continue to suggest limited inflation pressure in the pipeline. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data continued to suggest a large amount of slack in the job market (hiring rates and quit rates are trending flat, still low by historical standards). The IMF slightly lowered its forecast for global growth this year and next, with larger downward shifts in the outlook for Russia and Brazil.

The stock market was encouraged by the FOMC minutes, which suggested that the Fed would be in no hurry to raise short-term interest rates and would likely raise them gradual once they start. However, a sell-off in technology shares led the market lower on Thursday. Bond yields fell.

Next week, the mid-month economic reports pour in. The focus is likely to be on the retail sales report (Monday), which should reflect a rebound from adverse weather (unit auto sales snapped sharply higher in March). Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak twice, but only the Wednesday speech has potential to move the markets. Weather is still a factor in much of major economic reports (as some of the "strength" will merely reflect a rebound from bad weather). The Beige Book may help us to gauge the underlying strength of the economy. Friday is a holiday.


  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 16170.22 16572.55 -2.45%
NASDAQ 4054.11 4237.74 -2.93%
S&P 500 1833.08 1888.77 -0.83%
MSCI EAFE 1919.80 1924.32 0.22%
Russell 2000 1127.66 1181.12 -3.09%

Consumer Money Rates

  Last 1-year ago
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25
Fed Funds 0.08 0.16
30-year mortgage 4.34 3.43


  Last 1-year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.678 1.531
Dollars per Euro 1.389 1.306
Japanese Yen per Dollar 101.470 99.740
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.092 1.015
Mexican Peso per Dollar 13.026 12.101


  Last 1-year ago
Crude Oil 103.40 94.64
Gold 1318.82 1559.16

Bond Rates

  Last 1-month ago
2-year treasury 0.35 0.34
10-year treasury 2.63 2.64
10-year municipal (TEY) 4.05 4.40

Treasury Yield Curve – 4/11/2014

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 4/11/2014

Economic Calendar

April 14  —  Retail Sales (March)
April 15  —  Consumer Price Index (March)
Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)
Homebuilder Sentiment (April)
April 16  —  Building Permits, Housing Starts (March)
Industrial Production (March)
Yellen Speaks ("monetary policy and the economic recovery")
Fed Beige Book
April 17  —  Jobless Claims (week ending April 12)
Philadelphia Fed Index (April)
April 18  —  Good Friday (markets closed)
April 21  —  Leading Economic Indicators (March)
April 22  —  Existing Home Sales (March)
April 23  —  New Home Sales (March)
April 24  —  Durable Goods Orders (March)
April 30  —  Real GDP (1Q14, advance estimate)
FOMC Policy Decision (no press conference)

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Also municipal bonds may be subject to capital gains taxes if sold or redeemed at a profit. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assumes a 35% tax rate. Municipal securities may lose their tax-exempt status if certain legal requirements are not met, or if tax laws change.

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors.

Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business April 10, 2014.

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